The Four Realms of the Overbet

[Jason Strasser]

I was gathering some thoughts the other day on the overbet, and I think this is the best way to think about them.

First level/realm whatever:
When beginners overbet its almost always a bluff. They bet small with big hands, and big with bad hands because they don't want to get called. This is boring to talk about.

Second:
The second level of overbetting is where I'd say most typical 2p2ers are. It basically involves overbetting the nuts or close, hoping to get called by worse hands. Versus opponents who are bad or who you will never see again, this is often as far as you should take your level of thinking with overbets.

Third:
People who overbet the nuts or pure air. This can be both very tricky to do (finding the right frequencies) and hard to deal with. For me to overbet big with pure air, I generally want to reserve this for someone who I will see again. In my game (party 10-20) I'll do this move versus regulars who I feel like I may be able to exploit if they see me make a huge overbet with nothing. People tend to not forget big bets like that, and I feel like I can usually make back my money and more by losing a huge pot with jack high. I generally won't show a bluff ever, but I might consider it because generally I think my bluffing frequencies are low when I'm doing this overbet bluff and I want people to think its higher.

Fourth:
You really are not going to see this often except when two very tough players are going at it. This involves overbetting with a wide range of hands, spreading from pure air to the nuts, and everything in between. In order to do this type of bet you need to really feel like your opponent is thinking and is capable of calling a big bet with the thinking 'he can only have nuts or pure air, so I call with top pair'. It is the most beautiful thing in poker when you see something like this. My favorite hand ever that I witnessed went like this:

Bbuddy and Hallingol are playing 10-20 on stars. Hallingol opens from late position, buddy calls. Flop TT6 two tone. Hallingol bets buddy calls. Turn 6. Hallingol again bets pot, buddy calls. River 2, no flush got there. Hallingol checks, Buddy goes all in for 2.5x pot. Hallingol runs his timer down and calls with 77, Buddy shows KK and takes down the pot.

These ideas are very rough, but I'm curious what people think about this approach to thinking about the overbet.

-Jason

[gomberg]

Wow - I think you really nailed some concepts here. Good thinking theory post.

I agree that most people here are at level two. I am usually there as well. I very, very rarely overbet w/ nothing, as it doesn't fit into my gameplan well and I don't see the same players enough.

I do skip sometimes (albeit very rarely) to stage 4 overbet. This is when you're playing someone and you get a great read because of betting or timing that they have an ok but not great hand, but can make big calls. For example, If someone's seen me 3 barrell bluff recently (unfortunately this happens sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ), and I have a hand like AK on a Kxxxx bd, and I know he has something like KQ or Ace-2nd pair, I can put in that overbet on the river for a slim value bet.

Very good stuff to think about...

[Jason Strasser]

Gom,

Some people tell me that my level 3 and 4 should be merged. I dunno I guess you could group it all together, but throuhgout my experiences it just seems to make sense to me.

Another thing to think about is that against terrible players the exploitation of level one thinking may look like level four thinking... When instead its just beating up on someone who can't fold top pair which is kinda boring to talk about
-Jason

[mgsimpleton]

I agree that level 3 and 4 are merged in a way. In the past month I have incorporated overbetting with air into my game and I think it has payed off dramatically, especially against bad players who don't leave you guessing where their hand is.

One hand I raised 67s on the button and the board came 8J8Q3... i had bet the flop and checked behind on the turn and on the river went all in for 1200 into a pitiful 300 dollar pot. anyway i get called by AT, which is about what i put him on... i was stunned. but throughout the night he kept check calling me on every street when he had a marginal hand and he was policing me so from that point on many value bets became overbets all in when he took that line, and i took maybe 3 buy ins off him.

I think that if you can do level 3 occasionally and show it down (hopefully not as the loser, though i think that gives you more credibility than when you click the show button, then people start thinking you are obviously advertising), you will be able to do level 4 a lot. if you can make good reads (even when they dont make it easy) this can be VERY profitable. you're right, jason, this HAS to be against regulars u play with from time to time. good post.

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]
Another thing to think about is that against terrible players the exploitation of level one thinking may look like level four thinking... When instead its just beating up on someone who can't fold top pair which is kinda boring to talk about

[/ QUOTE ]

Although this is true - sometimes you can make a good opponent look like a foolish one because of past plays force him to make long calls w/ top pair [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So now I guess we're getting into the "forced mistakes" aspect of NL play, which is very interesting in itself. I believe ciaffone and reuben said in their book that they think the most profit is from non-forced mistakes, but the forced ones are much more fun (and non-boring) to go for.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that if you can do level 3 occasionally and show it down (hopefully not as the loser, though i think that gives you more credibility than when you click the show button, then people start thinking you are obviously advertising),

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a pretty good point and it's why I dont get involved with the mindfuck of showing my hands because I'm not always sure of hos it will be interpreted. I feel like when people show me a big bluff and then do it later I'm almost forced to give him credit because I assume he's advertising. Hmmm... Maybe I should show my bluffs and keep bluffing over and over... Oh wait that wont work...

-Jason

[turnipmonster]

great post. one reason I think the 3rd level can be tricky is so many stars must be aligned for it to work. you generally have to have made it to the river and still have nothing against an opponent who you are sure will fold a fairly good hand and you both must have > pot chips left. also the cards must have fallen in such a way so that your opponent can read your hand for the nuts or nothing. I think that last point is kind of key, and doesn't happen a lot.

--turnipmonster

[mgsimpleton]

example, from when i was lagging it up ridiculously on the 2/4 6 max the other day and bluffing with ridiculous hands for no reason than to stroke my own ego. oh and to induce hands like this one:

Hero (T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

Hero raises to 14 UTG, SB calls.

Flop (28): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, hero bets 25, villain calls.

Turn (78): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, hero bets 60, villain calls.

River (198): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, hero goes all in for 350, villain calls.

Villain shows 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

i was pushing the river no matter what but i think the call is way more marginal when there are 4 spades on board. though maybe it is less marginal.

i feel like here many people say to themselves "this can only be the Ks or it is air" but when people are calling you down on these bets with far less, there's no reason this should be the case.

[Jason Strasser]

Turnip,

I play a live deepstacked 5-5 game that plays pretty big (4k plus stacks often) and I get in spots like this fairly often versus good players. Usually it's something like I call a raise in LP with KTs. Flop comes AQx and I have a running flush draw. I call the flop and turn and bluff overbet when I'm pretty sure my opponents will fold AK and can put me on a slowplayed set or something when it gets checked to me on the river. Again, obviously for the third level to work you need to have a little bit of trust in your opponents... Trust that they can think and also that they can make the big fold.

-Jason

[mgsimpleton]

jason, where are you playing that people will fold AK on an A high board? oh, ok, i just saw the stipulation "good players" so what like 5%...