Final Table Hand vs. Chip leader

Sluss · #1 08-25-2005, 07:35 AM

Pokeroom 20+2 Don't have the HH handy so chip counts are aproximate.

When the final table started there were two guys with monster stacks and 7 medium stacks with only one short stack. It's now down to four with Myself (who was medium) the two biggies (one is now the chip leader one is now the short stack) and the short stack who is now third in chips.

Villain has been agressive, but not maniacal. He hasn't been invoved in many big pots and if he is they have all been pre-flop pushes or when he trapped post flop. And mainly against the shorter stacks at the table. When he has shown down a hand it has been good.

I have really been the aggressor in the last half hour knocking out the last two and being by far the most active player at the table. I have raised the last two hands and taken the blinds. I have been pretty tight post-flop not getting too involved if I miss, but I don't think this guy is good enough to have noticed this.

Blinds 1,000/2,000 no ante

UTG 34,000
HERO 59,000 A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain (SB) 94,000
BB 46,000

Pre-flop
UTG folds, HERO raises to $5,000, Villain raises $10,000, BB folds, Hero calls $5,000

Flop (Pot $22,000) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets $30,000, HERO?

What hand does the Villain have?

My preflop read is a hand that doesn't want to see that much action. I know it is a min-raise, but he has tried to trap with his bigger hands in the past. I've seen him cold call a preflop raise with AA, KK and AK. I did however put AK into his preflop range. I'm thinking AK, AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ-55.

Tailgunner · #2 08-25-2005, 08:09 AM

Muck. Of the hands you put him on, even assuming offsuit holdings, you're beaten by almost all of them and looking at a split at best. Anything that improves your hand may be hitting him better, and even the best scenario of drawing the ten may leave you splitting. He's been playing solid, and I would tend to give him credit for a reasonable hand... I also wouldn't feel too confident that he hasn't picked up on your aggression and is trying to suck you into the hand. Even if he hasn't, you are most likely dominated and need to get out.

Hofzinser · #3 08-25-2005, 08:35 AM

Of the range of hands you put him on, you tie once and lose every other time. Obviously you may be able to bluff him off a few of them, but even so, I see no reason to go any further in this pot - you're still in good shape if you fold.

nsj · #4 08-25-2005, 08:43 AM

Hero can't successfully bluff-raise here.
It'd be 19K more into an 80K pot.

This is an easy muck. Best case scenario is a medium PP giving you 10 outs. Most other scenarios you are drawing very thin.

37offsuit · #5 08-25-2005, 08:48 AM

You know you have to fold here. You can't push him off of anything here and that's the kind of flop that will nail a preflop minraiser. Opponent has some sort of hand. He's playing it fast because the flop has likely hit you in some way, possibly giving you a pair and a draw (KQ, etc).

His bet lets you know that he likes his hand enough to pot commit himself. That's a very telling sign this late in a tournament. Do I expect he has a monster? No, he'd bet less and try to give you the opportunity to bluff/semi-bluff.

Sluss · #6 08-25-2005, 03:19 PM

The flop overbet doesn't smell fishy to anyone else?

FWIW, this guy does not know pot odds and would fold to a push if he thought he was beat.

schwza · #7 08-25-2005, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The flop overbet doesn't smell fishy to anyone else?

FWIW, this guy does not know pot odds and would fold to a push if he thought he was beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't matter.... fold.

Sluss · #8 08-25-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
don't matter.... fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, Yea, I'm not as nvts as I look. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I did fold.

At the time though there was a strong feeling running through me to push. The bet really felt like a small pocket pair. I used the whole bank and then folded. Of course he showed me 66.

I kept chipping away at him for a while until I busted him and the BB a few hands before him. Then I made one really stupid bluff HU and cost myself a win.