Weird Wheel Hand - PP 15/30 - Page 2

BeerGolfPoker · #11 08-25-2005, 03:08 AM

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If I call the flop and it is 2 more small bets back to me, I fold. However, given the size of the pot and the possible implied odds if I hit my hand (very deceptive), I think this is a clear call even if I know the button will raise.

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you would be wrong.

if the turn is a heart gutshot card for you do you pay off the whole way?

if you hit an ace, do you pay off?

if you hit your straight and then a heart falls do you pay off being c'red?

what about it being bet and 3 bet back to you on the flop (clearly you fold but lose that sb some % of the time)

its clearly a -ev call chock FULL of reverse implied odds

-Barron

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I really don't think it is that simple.

The answers to your first 3 questions are complex, based on the flop action after me and how many people stay in the pot. If there are 6 people in the pot going to the turn and I hit my heart gutshot, then I am not paying off. If there are just 3 people I probably am, depending on how heavy the action is. Etc. Etc. for if an A falls. It depends.

Assume 8 people to the flop - If I KNOW that I am going to have to pay 2 small bets (i.e., I know it is going to be raised behind me) on the flop, and there are going to be at least 3 people continuing to the turn, I am getting at least 10:1 (300:30) on my call. I also think that the number of big bets I will garner on average if I hit the winning hand is a lot more than what I will lose if I make a second best handon average, and that this fact pushes it to a call.

DcifrThs · #12 08-25-2005, 03:13 AM

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Assume 8 people to the flop - If I KNOW that I am going to have to pay 2 small bets (i.e., I know it is going to be raised behind me) on the flop, and there are going to be at least 3 people continuing to the turn, I am getting at least 10:1 (300:30) on my call.

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so you're telling us you're psychic...

well then why even bother playing poker.

go bet on sports events and the market.

Barron

BeerGolfPoker · #13 08-25-2005, 03:17 AM

Let me try to put it another way regarding the flop. Suppose I have 10:1 odds as I explained in my last post. One could say it is lower due to the times it is 2 more bets back to me, but I think this is AT LEAST offset by the times where no one raises at all.

10:1 is slightly lower than the odds of hitting a one card gutshot. So if I think I can make more bets when I hit the winning hand than those I lose when I make a second best hand, the call is correct.

I think that I play well enough against regular 15/30 players that this is the case.

DcifrThs · #14 08-25-2005, 03:20 AM

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Let me try to put it another way regarding the flop. Suppose I have 10:1 odds as I explained in my last post. One could say it is lower due to the times it is 2 more bets back to me, but I think this is AT LEAST offset by the times where no one raises at all.

10:1 is slightly lower than the odds of hitting a one card gutshot. So if I think I can make more bets when I hit the winning hand than those I lose when I make a second best hand, the call is correct.

I think that I play well enough against regular 15/30 players that this is the case.

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but its offset by the times that you go 3 or 2 bets on the turn and either the board pairs OR a heart comes and you are beat.

there are too many redraws and too many people in this pot w/ too many unknown to make this call profitable in the long run.

Barron

BeerGolfPoker · #15 08-25-2005, 03:20 AM

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Assume 8 people to the flop - If I KNOW that I am going to have to pay 2 small bets (i.e., I know it is going to be raised behind me) on the flop, and there are going to be at least 3 people continuing to the turn, I am getting at least 10:1 (300:30) on my call.

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so you're telling us you're psychic...

well then why even bother playing poker.

go bet on sports events and the market.

Barron

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Lol, I was speaking hypothetically. I was assuming I put 2 small bets in on the flop. In my post above, I explain why I think this is a fair assumption (on average). The times it is 2 more small bets back to me on the flop is at least offset by the times it only goes one small bet on the flop. Thus, I think 10:1 is a fair measure of my immediate odds.

DcifrThs · #16 08-25-2005, 03:23 AM

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Assume 8 people to the flop - If I KNOW that I am going to have to pay 2 small bets (i.e., I know it is going to be raised behind me) on the flop, and there are going to be at least 3 people continuing to the turn, I am getting at least 10:1 (300:30) on my call.

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so you're telling us you're psychic...

well then why even bother playing poker.

go bet on sports events and the market.

Barron

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Lol, I was speaking hypothetically. I was assuming I put 2 small bets in on the flop. In my post above, I explain why I think this is a fair assumption (on average). The times it is 2 more small bets back to me on the flop is at least offset by the times it only goes one small bet on the flop. Thus, I think 10:1 is a fair measure of my immediate odds.

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i'll try this one more time.

i was not only referring to the flop odds but the fact that there are tons of redraws to BEAT you if you do hit a black 3 or 2 or 4 or whatever gave you the wheel. there are then many cards that will hit on the river that you will pay off that give your hand reverse implied odds as well as the implied odds of hitting the turn.

your flop call isn't terrible, just -EV, which makes itwrong.

Barron

BeerGolfPoker · #17 08-25-2005, 03:26 AM

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Let me try to put it another way regarding the flop. Suppose I have 10:1 odds as I explained in my last post. One could say it is lower due to the times it is 2 more bets back to me, but I think this is AT LEAST offset by the times where no one raises at all.

10:1 is slightly lower than the odds of hitting a one card gutshot. So if I think I can make more bets when I hit the winning hand than those I lose when I make a second best hand, the call is correct.

I think that I play well enough against regular 15/30 players that this is the case.

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but its offset by the times that you go 3 or 2 bets on the turn and either the board pairs OR a heart comes and you are beat.

there are too many redraws and too many people in this pot w/ too many unknown to make this call profitable in the long run.

Barron

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So what you are basically saying is that I will lose more bets the times that I hit a second best hand than the bets I win when I make the best hand.

Intuitively, I don't think this is true, but I don't have the mathematical prowess to perform an in-depth analysis to show that I/you am/are right.

I will say that I am fairly certain that the call is AT WORST slightly -EV.

BeerGolfPoker · #18 08-25-2005, 03:58 AM

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Let me try to put it another way regarding the flop. Suppose I have 10:1 odds as I explained in my last post. One could say it is lower due to the times it is 2 more bets back to me, but I think this is AT LEAST offset by the times where no one raises at all.

10:1 is slightly lower than the odds of hitting a one card gutshot. So if I think I can make more bets when I hit the winning hand than those I lose when I make a second best hand, the call is correct.

I think that I play well enough against regular 15/30 players that this is the case.

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but its offset by the times that you go 3 or 2 bets on the turn and either the board pairs OR a heart comes and you are beat.

there are too many redraws and too many people in this pot w/ too many unknown to make this call profitable in the long run.

Barron

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I understand your point about redraws that beat me. This is the negative implied odds part of my call. I have been incorporating this aspect of the hand into my analysis.

The positive implied odds part of my call is the obvious fact that I will be winning multiple bets when I make the winning hand.

The point we are hung up on (I think) is weighing the negative implied odds you mention (flush comes, board pairs, etc.) vs. the positive implied odds I get from the numerous bets I garner when my hand holds up.

Given the fair assumption of 10:1 immediate odds on my call, if the positive implied odds outweigh the negative implied odds, the call is +EV, EV-neutral at worst.

So your position must be that I will lose more bets on average the times I make a second best hand (due to the redraws) than the bets I make on average when I make the best hand and it holds up.

I don't see any reason for this to be true, assuming I am semi-competent at reading hands and getting value.