Weird Wheel Hand - PP 15/30

BeerGolfPoker · #1 08-25-2005, 01:58 AM

I was unsure of my play on both of the big streets in this hand.

Everyone and their mother limps to me in the CO, I follow suit w/ Ad 3d. Now the button raises, everyone calls. 7 or 8 to the flop.

Flop K45, w/ 2 hearts. Checked to the hijack who bets, I call, button raises, everyone else folds back to the hijack, and we both call.

I have no read on the hijack, other than that he is short on money. The button seems solid enough although this is only from about 2 orbits of observation.

Turn is an offsuit 2. Hijack leads out again, I call hoping the button will raise again so I can pump the pot. However, he does not oblige, and just calls.

River is the 7h, bringing the flush. Hijack leads again. I decide to just call, because I can't put the button on a hand with which he will call 2 cold given how he's played the hand (but he might overcall), and if one of them hit the flush and I raise then it is going to be 3 bet and I don't think I'll be able to get away given the pot size.

Thoughts?

bank · #2 08-25-2005, 02:19 AM

What about folding the flop? You have the button (pf raiser) behind you who will destroy your gutshot odds when he raises (most likely) and those 2 hearts taint your 4 outs somewhat (maybe decrease them to 3.5).

The way you played it you have to raise this turn.

*note* I don't play 15/30 my advice could be dumb.

DcifrThs · #3 08-25-2005, 02:27 AM

3 words. raise the turn.

3 more words. fold the flop.

-Barron

bank · #4 08-25-2005, 02:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3 words. raise the turn.

3 more words. fold the flop.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for condensing my post.

DcifrThs · #5 08-25-2005, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 words. raise the turn.

3 more words. fold the flop.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for condensing my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

np

-B

Big_Jim · #6 08-25-2005, 02:31 AM

Flop call is probably -EV, your tainted straight outs (there WERE 8 people to the flop)

Pot is way too big to try to trap people into this pot on the turn.

If Hijack has led into the PF raiser both times now, it is possible that he has a monster hand, and will pump the pot for you.

Furthermore, if button is the one with the flush draw, he doesn't want to pump it anymore, and you're giving him a great price to draw.

On the river, I think you're almost definately beat, but you have to call, the pot is huge.

BeerGolfPoker · #7 08-25-2005, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What about folding the flop? You have the button (pf raiser) behind you who will destroy your gutshot odds when he raises (most likely) and those 2 hearts taint your 4 outs somewhat (maybe decrease them to 3.5).

The way you played it you have to raise this turn.

*note* I don't play 15/30 my advice could be dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I call the flop and it is 2 more small bets back to me, I fold. However, given the size of the pot and the possible implied odds if I hit my hand (very deceptive), I think this is a clear call even if I know the button will raise.

Also, the degree to which my gutshot outs are tainted is probably offset by the likelihood that my A outs are good.

If I raise the turn, I give the button a chance to get away from some of his hands that are drawing dead, e.g., QQ and JJ. Also, if he has AA, KK, AK, or something else he really likes he is almost surely going to raise on this harmless-looking board and then I will be able to 3 bet. If he has anything but KK here I can't see him 3-betting if I raise the turn right away.

DcifrThs · #8 08-25-2005, 02:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I call the flop and it is 2 more small bets back to me, I fold. However, given the size of the pot and the possible implied odds if I hit my hand (very deceptive), I think this is a clear call even if I know the button will raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would be wrong.

if the turn is a heart gutshot card for you do you pay off the whole way?

if you hit an ace, do you pay off?

if you hit your straight and then a heart falls do you pay off being c'red?

what about it being bet and 3 bet back to you on the flop (clearly you fold but lose that sb some % of the time)

its clearly a -ev call chock FULL of reverse implied odds

-Barron

Big_Jim · #9 08-25-2005, 02:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a clear call even if I know the button will raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This goes straight to hell when it's 2 bets back to you.

[ QUOTE ]
if he has AA, KK, AK, or something else he really likes he is almost surely going to raise on this harmless-looking board

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but these are far from villian's most likely holdings.

If villian is decent, he should be raising here with any suited broadways down to JTs and any decent pair. Again, if he's on the flush draw, he will always just call here, getting fantastic odds.

BeerGolfPoker · #10 08-25-2005, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop call is probably -EV, your tainted straight outs (there WERE 8 people to the flop)

Pot is way too big to try to trap people into this pot on the turn.

If Hijack has led into the PF raiser both times now, it is possible that he has a monster hand, and will pump the pot for you.

Furthermore, if button is the one with the flush draw, he doesn't want to pump it anymore, and you're giving him a great price to draw.

On the river, I think you're almost definately beat, but you have to call, the pot is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the river I wasn't even considering folding, I was debating between calling and raising.

I am still not convinced about the turn. The only hand the button could have against which I would want to raise, if I could see his cards, is a flush draw. If he has TPTK or better he is raising at least 80% of the time and I can get 3 bets in the pot. If he has some worse pair I don't want him out of the pot.

Your point regarding the hijack possibly having a monster is well-taken, but I think his most likely holding is a K, and I don't think this possibility outweighs the other reasons for calling that I have mentioned.