Party 10/20: trips facing ridiculous overbet

broken_downstem · #1 08-24-2005, 07:11 PM

A little background first: a couple donks at the table had made it a habit of betting the $20 minimum into large fields on the flop and turn with ussually fairly weak hands. By this point a lot of the table was wise to what was going on and was raising these "min bets" most of the time. The villain in this hand seem fairly TAG and decent, but I only had 100 hands with him at the time and had yet to see him make a min bet or such a huge overbet.

The Hand:
I ($2000 stack) open limp in MP with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], cutoff and button limp, SB completes and villain ($2500 stack) checks in the BB

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, villain bets $20, I raise to $140, folded back to villain who moves in.

Can this possibly be a profitable call?

Big_Jim · #2 08-24-2005, 07:17 PM

Raise PF.

Flop looks like a fold. The worst hand that I think I would call with here is AJ.

If BB is indeed solid, then he knows that this min-bet will likely be raised, and goes for the big re-raise. The fact that it is a huge overbet makes it a bit more likely that he's bluffing, but usually tight players don't bluff off their whole stack.

I put him on 44.

Fold quickly, and move on.

broken_downstem · #3 08-24-2005, 07:38 PM

KJs is a hand were I don't really have a default plan preflop-- sometimes I open limp, sometimes I raise. It all depends.

As for the flop decision, at first I felt exactly the same as you, which is why I folded.

However, after talking it over with a couple friends of mine who have been crushing the game I started thinking I may have made a mistake. I feel like the all-in value bet is way to obvious and will get the majority of the hands he is beating (assuming he has it) to fold when they would have paid him off for a lot more as the hand played out. He knows that, and he probably knows that I am thinking what you said in your post, meaning that if he is a thinking player this is probably a profitable call in the long run.

What do the other regulars in this game think? Is this overbet most often a B_Buddy style bluff or a painfully obvious value bet?

Big_Jim · #4 08-24-2005, 10:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
meaning that if he is a thinking player

[/ QUOTE ]

Without a real damn good reason to think so, I don't give my opponents enough credit for this.

Secondly, his thinking may go deeper than that...

If he thinks that you think that he thinks that he's a smart, tricky player, then he might think that you'll think what I thought in my previous post, but he'll think that you'll think that he thinks this, and so you'll call, and he tables 44.

Fold.

kagame · #5 08-25-2005, 01:31 AM

most likely hes making a replay at you because of the $20 betting and stealing thats occuring

very unlikely hes playing a hand better than yours that fast, it just makes zero sense considering the table dynamic and gives up way too much value in general for a TAG player

EVEN if Villain was going to the level Big Jim seems to be able to give him credit for, there is no way to no hes not simply playing a decent J in that manner and coming to the same conclusions

In fact, I believe that is the better play, and the one more likely from a decent opponent, with trips medium kick he figures hes not going to make much money anyway becuase youre probably stealing, and will lose his stack if hes beaten already, or gets outdrawn, so why not make you think hes bluffing

FoxwoodsFiend · #6 08-25-2005, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Can this possibly be a profitable call?

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No. my general rule is until I'm more familiar with a player, I don't make absurdly tough calls. Give the guy some credit if you don't know how he plays. Put it this way-do you see a decent player playing 10 J like this?

FoxwoodsFiend · #7 08-25-2005, 02:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
KJs is a hand were I don't really have a default plan preflop-- sometimes I open limp, sometimes I raise. It all depends.

As for the flop decision, at first I felt exactly the same as you, which is why I folded.

However, after talking it over with a couple friends of mine who have been crushing the game I started thinking I may have made a mistake. I feel like the all-in value bet is way to obvious and will get the majority of the hands he is beating (assuming he has it) to fold when they would have paid him off for a lot more as the hand played out. He knows that, and he probably knows that I am thinking what you said in your post, meaning that if he is a thinking player this is probably a profitable call in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've said this before-thinking "why would he bet so much if he wanted a call" is a good way to go broke. EVERYBODY knows that big overbets are suspicious and don't seem like they want a call, and people are much more likely to make these huge overbets with the nuts than with nothing. This type of thought is especially likely to get you broke when you've given the villain just enough bite for him to know you're interested.
Think about it this way:
Scenario 1) Villain bets out, you raise. He thinks "I know I've only put 20 bucks in, but I can put in just another 2500 to win his 140. I hope he folds-he's got to know I know he has a hand and I don't care.
Scenario 2) This guy raised me. I have the nuts...let 'er ride and see if this idiot will call.
Which do you think is more likely...?

Big_Jim · #8 08-25-2005, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This guy raised me. I have the nuts...let 'er ride and see if this idiot will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well put.

ChrisW · #9 08-25-2005, 09:58 AM

This is an incredibly interesting hand.

Straightforward analysis: the weakest hand that any remotely competent Villain will show you is 44. Villain is betting 7xPot. If Villain has trips and Hero calls him with 44, Villain loses his $1960 bet 77% of the time and captures Hero's $1840 call 23% of the time for an average loss of $1026. If Hero folds, Villain only captures a $260 pot. So, if Hero has 44 with any reasonable frequency for the flop raise (my math makes 20.2% the break-even point), Villain shows a long run loss making this huge overbet with a weaker hand as long as Hero waits for 44 to call.

However, if the above analysis makes sense, Hero can never sensibly call Villain's all-in move . If Hero holds 44 and respects Villain, then Villain in the BB "must" hold J4 or JJ, since 44 would obviously be impossible. This strange scenario occurs because Hero's middle position open limp effectively denies any hand stronger than 44, so Villain doesn't have to worry about running into the nuts or the second nuts. Conversely, Villain can easily have J4 or JJ. I don't see a good solution to this one.

Leptyne · #10 08-25-2005, 11:52 AM

One of the facts of life of Holdem is it's very difficult to come from behind. You have a nice hand, a good hand, the flop hit you big. Now, do you have the best hand? You've got second kicker to the other J, and of course there's the problem with 44.

If I'm the BB I'm guessing you have a J for top set. A great place to push and see if you bite. You've seen a lot of players bite on this.

Without a read I don't see a call here. Your buddies won't continue to crush the game making calls like this.

And of course there is the old adage: "when in doubt always go with your first instinct".