Passively Played Pair of Kings

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think UTG+1 has to call with QQ/JJ less than never to make raising less profitable than calling on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you phrase that in English?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 will call 2 on the river sometimes and you're not really worried about the 4th Ace, are you?

[stoxtrader]

well played, all the way around.

[SA125]

Checking when ahead and calling when behind won't be +EV long term if you plan on calling down there with KK. I'd bet the turn and call a c/r if it's h/u and fold if it's 3 way. I'd play the river by ear. Same thing if they just call.

[elindauer]

Hi Max,

Given your player descriptions, I don't mind a turn check. After the river puts 3 aces up though, I'm confident I'm ahead of both players and I raise. I may well get called anyways by a hand like QQ. Naturally, I'll lose 2 bets to quad aces, but I think the extra bets taken from smaller pocket pairs more than justify it.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the river seems equally risky. The TAG isn't calling 2 with most hands (especially since our turn check screams MONSTER), and is LAG is bluffing he'll fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

In what way does checking with position "scream monster"? I'd say it looks very weak to me. Similarly, raising a known LAG on the river could easily be an attempt to grab a pot in which no one seems to have much interest.

I expect QQ-TT to call 2 cold here. I also expect the LAG to call the raise with just about anything. To me, raising seems pretty clearly best.

If you assume that a raise will fold out the other two, than of course you can make an argument for an overcall. With only one potential overcall though, you need a significant concern that you are behind the bettor, or that there is no way he will call a raise. I don't think this hand qualifies in either category. After the turn, MP2 knows with virtual certainty that no one has an ace. Your river raise will surprise everyone. I expect them to be very suspicious.

good luck.
eric

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
In what way does checking with position "scream monster"? I'd say it looks very weak to me. Similarly, raising a known LAG on the river could easily be an attempt to grab a pot in which no one seems to have much interest

[/ QUOTE ]

When considering the turn action combined with preflop and flop, I think the turn check is a sign of extreme strength, or extreme weakness. Just calling on the river furthers the image of extreme weakness and guarantees an overcall from the guy w/ QQ-TT. The turn check/river raise now pushes the perception to either extreme strength, or absolutely nothing. Given that the players in this pot know that Hero is TAG, absolutely nothing is impossible on that board. I think just calling not only assures us of an overcall, it also gives QQ a chance to make a horrible river raise, thinking he's doing it for value.

lf

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]

When considering the turn action combined with preflop and flop, I think the turn check is a sign of extreme strength, or extreme weakness. Just calling on the river furthers the image of extreme weakness and guarantees an overcall from the guy w/ QQ-TT. The turn check/river raise now pushes the perception to either extreme strength, or absolutely nothing. Given that the players in this pot know that Hero is TAG, absolutely nothing is impossible on that board. I think just calling not only assures us of an overcall, it also gives QQ a chance to make a horrible river raise, thinking he's doing it for value.

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see anyone checking a monster hand with position and two opponents on the turn. I can't fathom how you read this hand this way.

Further, your own analysis, even if we accept it, suggests that raising is better. How can QQ fold on an AAA board if he reads us for either a monster or nothing on the turn? The A hitting should make him think it more likely we are bluffing. Even if he does read us for strength, I don't think many players are capable of folding this hand.

Finally, hoping for QQ to raise doesn't gain you much, as 3-betting will be difficult.

Good luck.
Eric

[arkady]

Tough decision there, definitely tough.

I would raise the river, I know you are collecting bets from UTG+1, but imo he is not going to call with out a piece anyway. So if he has something like KQs, he is folding regardless. Mp will pay off with a small PP or the smaller FH.

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]

In what way does checking with position "scream monster"? I'd say it looks very weak to me. Similarly, raising a known LAG on the river could easily be an attempt to grab a pot in which no one seems to have much interest.

I expect QQ-TT to call 2 cold here. I also expect the LAG to call the raise with just about anything. To me, raising seems pretty clearly best.

If you assume that a raise will fold out the other two, than of course you can make an argument for an overcall. With only one potential overcall though, you need a significant concern that you are behind the bettor, or that there is no way he will call a raise. I don't think this hand qualifies in either category. After the turn, MP2 knows with virtual certainty that no one has an ace. Your river raise will surprise everyone. I expect them to be very suspicious.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post and good multilayered thinking imo. Agreed on all counts, especially the all-important last sentence.

Raise it up! You have the second nuts.

Unconfrontationally,

JimmyV

[Pot-A]

I think you should either bet the turn or raise the river. The action on the turn doesn't really tell you anything - lots of people would have gone for the C/R from either position given the pre-flop action. But UTG+1 would certainly have bet the river with an ace, and MP2 could be as weak as a really small pocket pair. You'll get called by lesser hands often enough on the river to make the raise pay over time.