LPP wakes up on the turn

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen way too much bluffing when the board pairs these days to ever consider folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah no way we are folding now (talk about a weak-tight move). I like calling here though since the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] didn't create any new draws and there is a good chance that we are drawing to just 2 outs.

[magates]

Ok, I've tried to calculate the EV of calling down vs. raising and folding to a 3-bet. It looks like the two K outs make calling more +ev than raising/folding. There are other possibilities but I doubt they matter enough to bother including.

The numbers are just estimates, and I'll assume BB folds on the turn, and MP2 calls down

Raise and fold to a 3-bet:
85% he 3-bets, I fold and lose 2BBs
15% he calls with a hand I beat and I win 12.25BBs (8.25BBs in the pot + 2BB from UTG+2, and 2BB from MP2)
.85(-2)+.15(12.25) = 0.14BB

Call Down:
81% he shows trip 5s and I lose 2BBs
4% a K falls on the river and I win 12.25BBs (8.25 + 4BB)
15% KK is good and I win 10.25BBs
.81(-2)+.04(12.25)+.15(10.25) = 0.41BB