Interesting hand, did I grossly misplay this and where?

[Proofrock]

I think I need to elaborate what I just said. Hero has a set on this board. Hero's read isn't perfect (how can you assume based on Villain's action here that he has exactly 89 here?). Hero is trying to decide, if Villain does indeed have 89 in his hand range, if he should want him to come along. Unless Hero is very certain that Villain has exactly 89, I don't see how he gets away from this hand even when the straight hits.

If I'm Hero here, I'm betting / pushing any turn card. The worst hand I could be up against that I'm ahead of now is 89, so if that's a likely holding, I want to make sure Villain isn't going to have odds to hit the straight even if I get all of my money in the pot. Under different circumstances with different stack sizes then it would be fine, but I don't like it here.

-cj

[tradingman123]

The crux of this hand appears to be hero's attempt to keep dominated hands in (AA/KK, T/7, 44) while offering negative odds to whoever may have the 8/9. Given what Proof just wrote earlier, I do not see how the hero can accomplish this. Any reraise of the all in bet would fold out any overpairs and the T/7. No reraise and the hero offering correct odds. Seems like a push is the best way to go since it folds out the draw and prob drags along the bottom set.

On second thought, does anyone like a mini-raise of the all in to perhaps (small chance) drag along the overpair and offer incorrect odds for the draw?

[n1bd]

Hi Proofrock and tradingman123,

I'll say it again:

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No reraise and the hero offering correct odds.

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If you flat call the all in, you offer insufficient odds for any hand to draw.

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When the pot is ~ 1800 and Hero has ~550 left, Hero is confident enough in his read that he folds the river, getting 4.5 to 1 to call?

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You don't have to be confident in your read when you fold, because you are not worried about being wrong. Keeping the button in the hand and later folding incorrectly after a 6/J hits is preferable to blowing him away on the flop; you profit more by keeping him in, even if your 6/J fold is incorrect.


Here is the math. For simplicity, I'll ignore the chance of the SB sucking out. He is drawing super thin, so this simplification doesn't affect the results much.


RERAISE FLOP

Hero reraises the flop and blows the button away.

EV = $488.50


FLAT CALL ON FLOP, J/6 ON TURN, TRY TO DRAW TO BOAT

Hero flat calls the all in and lets the button in. It doesn't matter what the button has; he could have 98, he could have 22. If a J/6 turns, the button bets $229, giving Hero break-even odds to draw to a boat (assuming no implied odds), so Hero calls. If Hero fills on the river, he goes all in and the button folds; this is a conservative assumption, since a straight probably pays off the boat. If Hero misses on the river, he check-folds; this is a conservative assumption, since in real life, Hero sometimes gets a free showdown. If a J/6 doesn't turn, Hero bets the button out of the pot.

EV = 39/47 * 747 + 8/47 * (36/46 * -537.5 + 10/46 * 976) = $584.37


FLAT CALL ON FLOP, FOLD TO J/6 ON TURN

Hero flat calls the all in and lets the button in. It doesn't matter what the button has; he could have 98, he could have 22. If a J/6 turns, the button bets $99 bazillion or $230 or anything too expensive for Hero's boat draw, and Hero folds.

EV = 39/47 * 747 + 8/47 * -308.5 = $567.34


FLAT CALL ON FLOP, PAY OFF UNREADABLE SUCKOUT

Just to be complete, let's look at cases where the button has a hand other than 98 that can outdraw Hero on the turn. When this happens, Hero pays off with his stack, because he has misread the button's hand. Hands like J9 and AA are in this category. The strongest unreadable draw that the button can have is a gutshot like J9, giving him 4 outs.

EV = 43/47 * 747 + 4/47 * -1167 = $584.11

The turn. If you already had put him on 8 9 why would you bet so much on the turn and then be forced to call the all-in hoping you fill up? You were "hoping" you were wrong on the 8 9. You put yourself in a position to have to call the all-in bet. You proved he received proper odds to call on his draw by paying him in full on the backend. Either push on the flop or be ready to fold on the turn. Anything in between is a mistake.