LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
This play is very out of character.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do they know that?

The real beauty of this hand is those times you get called, and others see your hand, especially if you suck out.

[Big_Jim]

Alright.... I'll do the math.

Pot before Push: $245
Price to Push: $960
Win if Called and Outdarw: $1045

x = probability of a fold

When he folds: x * $245

When he calls:
vs set: 3.4:1
vs overpair or top pair: 1.74:1
vs. two pair (only 34 makes sense): 1.84:1

Since you're gonna be called by a set way more often than the other two, let's round it to about 3:1 or so against you improving if called.

THUS:
When his hand holds up: (100-x) * (3/4) * -$960
When you outdraw: (100-x) * (1/4) * $1045

SO.....
(x * $245) + ((100-x) * (1/4) * $1045) + ((100-x) * (3/4) * -$960)
245x + 26125 - 261.25x - 72000 + 720x
703.75x - 18925 = 0
x = 18925/703.75 ~ 26


Thus, villian must fold this hand only 26% of the time, given the above assumptions.

Q. E. D.

I think that it is fairly likely that you can fold out villian more than one time in 4 here, so the play should be marginally +EV, depending on how strong his lead into a tight player typically is. You'd have to analyze his hand range for that, and I don't wanna.

Furthermore,a s mentioned elsewhere, if you really do play as solid a game as it seems you do, this kind of play against players whom you frequently play against should have some pretty nice metagame purposes.

Against players who you don't know, and who don't know you, and whom you aren't sure you'll be playing much against in the future? Make a normal raise on the flop, and play it from there.

[iceman5]

Jim, that avatar is very disturbing.

I actually thought I need more folding equtiy than 26%. After seeing that, I like the play even more.

The guy called with JJ and I caught a 7 and won the hand.
Calling with JJ there is pretty dump in my opinion. He cant beat AA, KK, QQ or TT. Would anyone push there with an unimproved AK? Highly unlikely.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Would anyone push there with an unimproved AK? Highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far more likely than someone pushing with TT. I think pushing dry flops like these, in position, after raising PF is just going to look like a bluff too often to work as one.

I'm going to answer seriously for a change.

Firstly, I did the equations independently and got a value of 65%.

Secondly, everyone has said how great this play is. It's stupid. Here's why: It looks like a bluff. An overpair does not push that flop. A set of tens does not push that flop. It looks like AK or an underpair getting desperate. I think your fold equity is far less than you believe because of the oddness of the push. When I first saw it, I decided I would definitely look it up, hence my comment. Given that you need 65% anyway, I think this play is very -EV.

To those that said it's an image play, calling all your [censored] chips with the nut low is an image play too.
This is a question of EV, and where it's marginal you can say it's an image play. In this case I do not believe it is anywhere near marginal.

Ice, I suspect the reason you lashed out so strongly at my comment is because you don't even know how to do the math for situations like this. If you want to play high stakes and become a lag, you need to either learn, or stop pretending that you know what you're doing. I say this for your own good and the good of your future 'backers'.

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright.... I'll do the math.

Pot before Push: $245
Price to Push: $960
Win if Called and Outdarw: $1045

x = probability of a fold

When he folds: x * $245

When he calls:
vs set: 3.4:1
vs overpair or top pair: 1.74:1
vs. two pair (only 34 makes sense): 1.84:1

[/ QUOTE ]
Um... vs set he's ~2.7:1 against. Your overpair/two pr #s are pretty close.
[ QUOTE ]

Since you're gonna be called by a set way more often than the other two, let's round it to about 3:1 or so against you improving if called.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually rounded it to ~2:1, assuming JJ/AT/set/logical 2 pr calls.

[ QUOTE ]

THUS:
When his hand holds up: (100-x) * (3/4) * -$960
When you outdraw: (100-x) * (1/4) * $1045

SO.....
(x * $245) + ((100-x) * (1/4) * $1045) + ((100-x) * (3/4) * -$960)
245x + 26125 - 261.25x - 72000 + 720x
703.75x - 18925 = 0
x = 18925/703.75 ~ 26


Thus, villian must fold this hand only 26% of the time, given the above assumptions.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what you did wrong, but this is off by about a factor of 2. The number I calc'ed was ~53%, which is pretty damn high IMO.

Though his required folding % is pretty high, I think this play is fine for metagame purposes. I do think that this will get called ALOT by hands you wouldn't normally expect because if I am correct, this is at a pretty new site, and I think players will look at your move as a draw or AK bluff. I still stick by my original recommendation (well agreeing with Jonny) of raising to ~$300, and then taking a free card.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Jim, that avatar is very disturbing.

I actually thought I need more folding equtiy than 26%. After seeing that, I like the play even more.

The guy called with JJ and I caught a 7 and won the hand.
Calling with JJ there is pretty dump in my opinion. He cant beat AA, KK, QQ or TT. Would anyone push there with an unimproved AK? Highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

but he had an overpair!

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]

245x + 26125 - 261.25x - 72000 + 720x
703.75x - 18925 = 0

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like that should be 45875

x = 45875/703.75 ~ 65

I think 3:1 is a little gloomy, so I don't think he has to fold that much, but he still has to fold a lot. (unless I screwed something up)

[n1bd]

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly, I did the equations independently and got a value of 65%

[/ QUOTE ]
You are right, Big_Jim is mistaken.


The simplest formula is

F = (B - E) / (Pf - E)

where

F = break-even probability of opponent folding
B = amount of hero's bet (or, if raising, amount of call + raise)
Pf = pot size when opponent folds, including hero's last bet
E = equity in pot when called (in terms of $s, not %)

[Big_Jim]

Thanks to those who pointed out my errors....

I thought that the number seemed pretty damn low....

Let's try this again, but let's use 2:1 for the odds of improving, since it seems more reasonable...

(x * $245) + ((100-x) * (1/3) * $1045) + ((100-x) * (2/3) * -$960)
245x + 34833 - 348.33x - 64000 + 640x
536.67x - 29167 = 0
x = 29167/536.67 = 54.35%

Now he needs to fold quite a bit more often...

Considering his lead out typically represents a fairly strong hand, this play probably dips into -EV.

Sorry for the snafu earlier.