Busted on the Bubble - Please advise

[jaybee_70]

I've read plenty of posts and seen my game improve dramatically, so I'm trying my first post to get some more direct advice (thank you in advance).

First situation, 21 players left in a $3 NL Aruba sattelite on UB. Top 15 get to play in an Aruba Supersattelite. I'm in 19th place with about 4k chips blinds are 600/1200. I get KQo in middle position and it's one limper to me. I raise minimun (just over half my stack), and it's folded to sb (started hand w/ just over 7k in chips) who re-raises another 1200 limper folds and it's back to me. I'm thinking he may be trying to keep me from stealing since I had pulled a similar move earlier. I move all-in thinking I only really fear AA-QQ, I'll take my chances against smaller pocket pairs, and this guy might even lay down an AK or AQ (He has been pretty tight so far). He calls w/ AA and I'm done.

Second situation, $10 PL on UB. Top 30 get paid and again I'm on the bubble in 31st place w/ 39 people still in the tourney. Blinds are 500/1000 and I have 5k in chips. Once again I get KQo (no clubs) in mp, folded to me and this time I limp. Late position caller (11k chips) and BB checks. Flop is Jc 10d 4c. BB checks I push all-in, and LP calls w/ A7c. Turn is the 9c and I'm done.

My strategy on the bubble is not to sit around and wait for people to bust out. I'm looking to steal some blinds or double up to get breathing room. The results above lead to questions. Am I playing these marginal hands too aggressively? Could I expect to see a better hand to play by staying tight? My ultimate goal is to win the tourney. By being passive on the bubble, while I might squeak into the money, I feel would leave me severely short stacked w/ very little shot at winning. Should I just try to hold on and at least recoup my entry fee? Any and all thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

In both situations you should be in all-in/fold mode. Once your stack is less than 10x the BB, no play makes sense other than all-in. You will rarely steal the blinds by just betting 2x the BB, and any more than that makes you pot committed if you're reraised, so just put your opponents on the biggest possible decision with your raise. Wouldn't have helped in case #1, but in the 2nd example, you might have picked up the blinds.

BTW - KQo sucks in NL, but in your situations it might be the best you see before being blinded off.

[jaybee_70]

much appreciated! I will shift strategy and go all- in when less than 10xBB. What do you do when your defense is crumbling and all looks lost? Attack!!

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I just reread the post and in the 2nd case, since it's PL, you can't go all-in preflop, but your best choice would seem to be the maximum raise (to 3,500).