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#42
08-21-2005, 03:06 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
[ QUOTE ]
The worst losing/break-even streak I've had over almost 500,000 hands is 28,000 of them (on multiple occasions). I would hate to come out of this streak at $3/$6. That thought alone makes me wanna barf all over the place. But if it must be, it must be [sigh]. [/ QUOTE ] After 500,000 hands I think your "poker" is ready to play 5/10. Here are two factors to consider though: psychological state (do you feel confident in your play or are you second-guessing a lot?). BR variance (are you worried that you could go bust easily?). If you answer yes to either question then let your self-esteem take a blow and move down. Otherwise, welcome to 5/10. 
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#43
08-21-2005, 03:08 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
[ QUOTE ]
According to this over 4k hands your turn and river bluffs are 100% effective? [/ QUOTE ] Evidently. I'd show you the hands if I knew which ones they were, but I don't. I don't do a whole lot of bluffing on the later streets because the games I play in just aren't very conduscive to it.
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#44
08-21-2005, 03:14 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The worst losing/break-even streak I've had over almost 500,000 hands is 28,000 of them (on multiple occasions). I would hate to come out of this streak at $3/$6. That thought alone makes me wanna barf all over the place. But if it must be, it must be [sigh]. [/ QUOTE ] After 500,000 hands I think your "poker" is ready to play 5/10. Here are two factors to consider though: psychological state (do you feel confident in your play or are you second-guessing a lot?). BR variance (are you worried that you could go bust easily?). If you answer yes to either question then let your self-esteem take a blow and move down. Otherwise, welcome to 5/10. [/ QUOTE ] Welcome? I'm already there, man. I just don't know if this is the brutal downswing that is expected after playing so many hands or what? If so, my monthly nut probably requests that I drop down. Also if so, I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing and relapsing back to where I hopefully should be. Nobody's answered the question about my standard deviation (12BB/100)... is this a non-issue?
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#45
08-21-2005, 03:19 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
[ QUOTE ]
I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing [/ QUOTE ] I just want to reiterate that this type of thinking is dangerous on a lot of levels.
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#46
08-21-2005, 03:19 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
[ QUOTE ]
Also if so, I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing and relapsing back to where I hopefully should be. [/ QUOTE ] Not a great way of thinking of it. [ QUOTE ] Nobody's answered the question about my standard deviation (12BB/100)... is this a non-issue? [/ QUOTE ] Mine's 11.6, i'm pretty sure this is standard, a non-issue. [ QUOTE ] Welcome, I'm already there, man. [/ QUOTE ] Welcome for good is what I meant.
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#47
08-21-2005, 03:25 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing [/ QUOTE ] I just want to reiterate that this type of thinking is dangerous on a lot of levels. [/ QUOTE ] Quit harsing my gig. I'll probably think otherwise tomrrow [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] Ps. Packers suck Good night - X
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#48
08-21-2005, 04:45 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
None of this has anything to do with math or statistics or how you have done in the game in the past. The way you played in the past isn't representative of how you'll play in the future anyway because you have learned more and adjusted to the game more since then. What matters is whether whether your honest assessment of the opponents at this level is that they are bad enough relative to you that you have positive expectation sitting in the game. If so, you should stay. If you can't honestly make that assessment, you should go back to a lower limit for a while.
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#49
08-21-2005, 08:28 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
I also just had a pretty large downswing, i noticed it does effect the way i play.
Not really that it tilts me, but i am too worried about the results to be fully concetrated at the game. If something like that could be the case for you as well, i think you better step down to 3/6
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#50
08-21-2005, 08:46 AM
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Re: My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)
The potential profit graph is what i always wonder about its accuracy most.
In the first place i am amazed to see this graph, if you could calculate the EV from every hand with reasonable accuracy, you could also let your programm play winning poker right ? And how does the potential profit graph process your bluffs?
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