Survey USA 50-State Poll and the 2006 Election

[slamdunkpro]

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I respect your point of view but I must point out that you seem to be implying that the Democrats must pander in the right way.IMO this is exactly why the Democrats are losing national elections.

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I think the big reason the democrats are losing elections is that no one is really sure anymore what the democrats believe in. They flip and flop around so much and say so many contradictory things. Take Dean & Clinton as examples – Dean paints the party line as just to the left of Mao, while Clinton is trying to portray herself as a semi-conservative. In addition the modern democratic party is composed of several fragmented groups, like the NAACP, Move-on, NAARL, NOW, and so on. While the republicans have some fragmentation, it’s not nearly as pronounced as the democrats

Another issue is that the democratic message is mostly negative, angry, and sounds of sour grapes, while the republican message is mostly positive. Which one is correct is a matter of opinion – that’s not the point of this message.

More - over the past 40-50 years the democrats won vote by “carroting” to these fragmented groups – “vote for us and we’ll stop the eeevil republicans from doing <whatever> to your group, and we will make things better for you. A lot of the people in these groups are realizing that they aren’t better off and that the republicans aren’t quite so eeevil.

Lastly – the left has had an iron lock on the print and broadcast media. This has changed. You are not constantly bombarded with the editorial opinion of the New York Times or the Washington Post.

I believe that all of these and more have contributed to the collapse of democrat power.



I did all that and didn’t even inject my opinion that the real reason is the democrats are just plain wrong! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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The polls I've seen survey 9% more democrats than they do republicans.

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No credible poll surveys this many more, but about 5% more Americans are registered as Democrats than Republicans. Judging by these huge disapproval numbers in some swing states, you can't blame polling mistakes on them.

[DVaut1]

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Another issue is that the democratic message is mostly negative, angry, and sounds of sour grapes, while the republican message is mostly positive.

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Who would actually think that anger motivates Republican voters? Clearly, only Democrats are motivated by anger.

We all know Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage, et al have made million-dollar careers out of appealing to Republicans' inherent positive and optimistic nature. [/sarcasm]

And as far as "sour grapes" goes, I think you just used it wrong;

Sour grapes is disparaging something you truly want, but have discovered is impossible to attain.

Sour grapes = if you applied for a job, but didn't get it - then you said "Oh, well, that job was stupid anyway"

If you're claiming Democrats flip-flop, are angry, are negative etc. - that's not a 'sour grapes' attitude.

If Democrats lost elections, but then pretended they didn't want to win, then that would legitimately be sour grapes. What you're describing isn't a 'sour grapes attitude', though.

I guess that Republicans weren't motivated by anger during the 90s, when they criticized Clinton during a time of war.

Let me repeat that for those who missed it:

Those traitorous Republican bastards criticized Clinton during a time of war. They questioned his motives for the war in the Balkans and impugned his integrity, although they had a lot of evidence for thinking that Clinton's motives were not pure. Well Democrats have a lot of evidence concerning Bush's motives as well. Stop being hypocrites.

[slamdunkpro]

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We all know Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage, et al have made million-dollar careers out of appealing to Republicans' inherent positive and optimistic nature. [/sarcasm]


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That wasn't my point - and I mentioned nothing about motivation. Regardless of motivation, truth, or anything else, the democrats are coming across as spoiled pouting little children, with a very negative and angry message. I still believe this is hurting them.

Your response is a great example – Instead of responding to the analysis in the context of the thread(why are the democrats losing ?)with your thoughs on why the democrats are losing ground, you make a disparaging and sarcastic remark, then nitpick a minor point, but add nothing substantial to the discussion

Another big one – The democrats get someone to listen to their message and they (the listener) says “ OK Bush and the Republicans are eeevil and what they are doing is bad. What’s the Democrat solution?” They don’t have an answer All they’ve got are complaints, personal attacks and nitpicks.

Sour grapes - Democrats want a majority in congress and they want the White House. They disparage them because they can't get them - usage is correct.

Again – this is not an ideological discussion. I’m just looking at why I think the Democrats are losing (and will continue to lose) seats in congress and will not take the White House (unless the Republicans run a really horrible candidate (like Bob Dole or Michael Dukakass)

So, why do you think they are losing?

[zipo]

>>Republicans are in a very vulnerable position, mainly due to the war. <<

The current situation in Iraq isn't helpful for the President, of course.

However, the high price of gas and the resulting inflation pressure which will result in a significant rise in interest rates. This rise in rates will have a tremendous negative impact upon real estate prices, which in turn will cripple consumer spending which has kept the economy afloat, as this spending has been fueled largely by consumers cashing equity out of their homes.

This may or may not become acute by 2006, but certainly by 2008 the economic impact of this on the political scene will be dramatic.

[ptmusic]

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>>Republicans are in a very vulnerable position, mainly due to the war. <<

The current situation in Iraq isn't helpful for the President, of course.

However, the high price of gas and the resulting inflation pressure which will result in a significant rise in interest rates. This rise in rates will have a tremendous negative impact upon real estate prices, which in turn will cripple consumer spending which has kept the economy afloat, as this spending has been fueled largely by consumers cashing equity out of their homes.

This may or may not become acute by 2006, but certainly by 2008 the economic impact of this on the political scene will be dramatic.

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Very true, and for all these reasons, I believe the Democrats are no longer losing ground, the Republicans are.

The Repubs need something hugely positive to gain any more seats in 2006: something like the capture of Bin Laden or a month in Iraq with no American deaths just before the election might do it.

-ptmusic

[wmspringer]

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So, why do you think they are losing?

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Uh, because the republicans are counting the votes?

[slamdunkpro]

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Uh, because the republicans are counting the votes?

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Again another excellent example – Nothing substantial, just rhetoric and sarcasm

However, this may be true in some instances, just as the opposite may be true, but in a lot of cases the party opposite the victor runs the election boards. Broward County in 2000 is a good example. Even after Florida certified the results; The Washington Post (liberal – Democrat supporter) commissioned a recount and they used the democrat party people to do it. The results weren’t well known because they buried them because Bush still won.

But in any case……