River decision...or is it?

[arkady]

Table just filled up a bit and this guy has pretty tight raising standards.

So given my turn 3-bet...

I am thinking he doesnt have KK, he raises the flop w/any K and given his EP raise, the only possible other hand is KJ/KT (KT less likely) anyway, he caps any other set on the turn. Him leading that river can just really be one hand...flawd logic? Who here raises anyway - who here calls?



Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, T.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 8, T, K (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls.

River: (10.83 BB) J (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero thinks...

[OrianasDaad]

I call the stop-and-go here. Some players are tricky enough to not cap KK so they can represent a worse hand. (See countering a good reader in Feeney's book Inside the Poker Mind).

The turn to river play might support a re-assessment of the players' possible holdings.

I call here because I'll avoid losing big on the river to a 3-bet when he does have kings, and I'm certainly going to dig into his head when I see his cards.

I now notice that you are also behind to AQ (on the river), which is slightly more likely than KK, but still rather unlikely.

In short. This hand was played weirdly and tricky enough that I really want to see his cards, and I don't want him to fold to a raise.