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#21
08-18-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking. Just look at this situation on its face - of course it's a fold. You don't even need to glance at the calculator for that if he's push/calling any two; don't you want him to get into it with the big stack next hand? [/ QUOTE ] Why would the big stack get involved next hand? 
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#22
08-18-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
Rephrasing that: 'do something stupid like'
edit: What I mean is that you don't need to do a gigantic calculation. You have a 55% chance to double up to third place and a 45% chance of busting. There is a >45% chance that with some moron pushing/calling every hand, something you like will happen 1 of the next 3 hands, so you fold. I don't get why this is difficult.
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#23
08-18-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking. [/ QUOTE ] Seems like the ICM calc is working fine. I didn't do the calcs, but Tigerite keeps plugging things in and coming up with a fold. People just need to think about what the ranges are, rather than always using the shortcut buttons. Eastbay might say something like "Try not putting garbage into it."
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#24
08-18-2005, 05:04 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
Rephrasing that: 'do something stupid like' edit: What I mean is that you don't need to do a gigantic calculation. You have a 55% chance to double up to third place and a 45% chance of busting. There is a >45% chance that with some moron pushing/calling every hand, something you like will happen 1 of the next 3 hands, so you fold. I don't get why this is difficult. [/ QUOTE ] That's assuming every hand will be only against him. Am I placing too much weight in not wanting to risk getting called by him and the bigstack in the next couple of hands? And if so, why?
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#25
08-18-2005, 05:06 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking. [/ QUOTE ] Seems like the ICM calc is working fine. I didn't do the calcs, but Tigerite keeps plugging things in and coming up with a fold. People just need to think about what the ranges are, rather than always using the shortcut buttons. Eastbay might say something like "Try not putting garbage into it." [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I didn't do any calculations, it was more of: will I get a better opportunity 4 handed with this guy always in a pot.
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#26
08-18-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
edit: What I mean is that you don't need to do a gigantic calculation. You have a 55% chance to double up to third place and a 45% chance of busting. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I follow you so far.... [ QUOTE ] There is a >45% chance that with some moron pushing/calling every hand, something you like will happen 1 of the next 3 hands, so you fold. I don't get why this is difficult. [/ QUOTE ] ..but this seems like a very bold prediction. I'm not saying your wrong. I've been doing quite a bit of thinking lately about "letting the other guys play". I feel sometimes purely ICM plays lead to me being involved in way too many hands. ICM is great for analyzing individual trials, but how many +1% EV plays can you make a game before it catches up with you. Some of the worst mistakes these players make are from their blinds. I'm beginning to think that by pushing small +EV situations I'm actually preventing them from making major mistakes. At the same time I am constantly exposing myself to risk.
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#27
08-18-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
..but this seems like a very bold prediction. [/ QUOTE ] Well we have two issues here: 1)A moron is playing badly every hand 2)There must be a >15% possibility per hand played that him playing badly will backfire in some way Add up all the hand ranges that are correct to call him or are correct to push into him. You see how, with 4 people in, the probability of something you like is > 15%?
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#28
08-19-2005, 12:20 AM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking. Just look at this situation on its face - of course it's a [/ QUOTE ] Okay, up to this point, I'm thinking that you're seeing things my way (push).... [ QUOTE ] fold. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You don't even need to glance at the calculator for that if he's push/calling any two; don't you want him to get into it with the big stack next hand? [/ QUOTE ] Only problem is that nowhere in the OP did it say that he was getting into it with the bigstack. This is how I see this situation. I'm sure that you'll correct me where I'm wrong. I think that at this point, we are so low, and the average player on the 22s is so focused on an ITM finish, that at this point even a loose player is going to tighten up a bit - at least to the point where he's not going to tangle with the bigstack. We must get ahead of the third stack here. This might be our only chance to get into a heads up pot. We have an above average hand. If we try pushing the next hand (if bigstack folds), then we have two players to worry about after us AND according to the read of the maniac, he's calling next hand too. Sure, this might be a -EV spot, but it's the best -EV spot that we can hope for. The third stack is going to seriously tighten up and watch us wither away - we must get ahead of him. We cannot fold into 3rd here. (I think that although possible, it's just wishful thinking to hope that the maniac doesn't at least tighten up to the point where he now avoids the bigstack. And no way in hell is the 3rd stack putting chips into a pot without a monster until we bust.) This hand represents the best of alot of bad options. Folding here is almost a give-up play. ICM be damned in this spot. That's my thoughts here anyway...
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#29
08-19-2005, 01:01 AM
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Re: <5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian
Let's think about this by reversing the situation. You are in the big blind and big stack pushes from the small blind. Do you call with Q9?
If he is really calling with 80-90% of the hands, it is very similar to calling a push from the big stack. And I think we all know how no-no it is to call a push from the big stack. I would fold this if I saw the big stack calling almost any hand with something like 9 high 10 high. The fact that Q9 is a fav over a random hand has no relevence here. He is taking the pusher's and his equity and giving it to other players each time he calls. I would wait until he sends some equity my way.
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