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#1
08-18-2005, 05:00 PM
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We\'re all victims (low content just throwing it out there)
We're all victims of our own experiences in poker.
You never get to the long run, so you've only experienced a sample (a small sample) of what is possible. This leads all of us, as humans, to draw false conclusions and, at times, give faulty advice. The real challenge is to realize this and focus on mathematics, psychology, and observation skills (hand reading and tells). For me ... I know I suck at poker. It's easy to find a game with players worse then me. And I still lose. So am I, in fact, worse then them? Or is it that the drop makes the low-limit game unbeatable as time marches on towards the long run? -DP 
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#2
08-18-2005, 07:03 PM
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Re: We\'re all victims (low content just throwing it out there)
[ QUOTE ]
Or is it that the drop makes the -DP [/ QUOTE ] i dont know
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#3
08-18-2005, 07:19 PM
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Re: We\'re all victims (low content just throwing it out there)
[ QUOTE ]
It's easy to find a game with players worse then me. And I still lose. So am I, in fact, worse then them? Or is it that the drop makes the low-limit game unbeatable as time marches on towards the long run? [/ QUOTE ] Are you playing live games? If so, you have to be extremely good at poker to show a profit against the rake and tips. Doesn't matter if you're better than them; you need to be signifigantly better. Even if you are a winning live player, it's gonna take you three years or so to hit the long run. As for other games (online or higher limits), postflop play >> preflop play. You might be worse than them; you might be marginally better; or you might just be running poorly. I'm in the middle of a 10k-hand downswing, about 120BB. I didn't just have a losing session; I've had a long sequence of losing or break-even sessions. I question my play a lot. I really wish I had a good way of shoving all of my hand histories into an algorithm and have it spit out "not only did you hit fewer sets than usual, but when you did hit them, you more often than usual were up against a draw that came in or everyone folded." Cuz that's what it feels like, but it's hard to get over the selective-memory problem. How many pairs? One per 17 hands. 1:8.5 it hits a set. So in 10k hands, that's 62 sets. If these pots (at Party .5-1) average 10BB, then my 120BB downswing is twelve fewer big pots than expected, which is 20% (50 instead of 62). An outlier, but sure, I can see that happening.
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