5-5NL: overplayed draw

[howzit]

5-5NL live:

Me: ~$1800
Villain: barely covers.

decent player opens for $50 (not unusual and he's been doing this a lot) and I pop it to $150 on the button w/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( i have a tight image going)

he calls, heads up.

Flop: ($300) 943, two diamonds. He leads for $200, i make $800. he thinks about it and calls.

Turn($1900): total turd. he checks, i push for roughly $900

Thoughts or comments?

[phillydilly]

i dont particularly like it
my biggest problem is with bet amounts,
by leaving yourself with 900 for the turn, you're giving villain better than 3:1 on the call, so almost no fold equity on the turn, dont like it.

i think i may just push the flop here
i've shown a lot of strength, i have minimum 9 outs, probably 12 outs, possibly 15 outs AND a backdoor wheel! that with fold equity, i push

[gol4pro]

What's up man? I didn't know you posted over here too. Did you post this at THP too?

Anyways, preflop is a big LAGgy, but I know you like to switch gears, so I'm all for it. As long as you can play a 1-pair flop well, then I have no problem with it, as it should give you decent fold equity on a raggedy flop.

As for the flop, you may want to push right here. Seems a little too aggressive, and may look a little too much like a semi-bluff, but it would really suck here if he called, and then he donkbet the turn.

As is, I might take a free card. I don't like the fact that pushing all in is only a 1/2 pot bet-- not likely to have much fold equity.

At the same time, with the huge size of the pot, and the number of outs we have, you hardly need any fold equity to make this play +EV.

All in all, I think you have 15 live outs. He's probably got JJ/TT quite a bit here. QQ also seems possible, which leaves you with 12 outs.

I guess it's the right play, even though I'd expect to see a call out of him much more often that you get a fold.

Nice hand.

[howzit]

me and my friend agreed that $600 on the flop is much, much much better. i can just push the turn if i like my read.

that way the pot will be $1500 w/$1050ish in the back vs. $1900 w/$900 in the back. Huge difference.

Even if he 3-bets allin on the flop, I just pot stuck myself and get my $ in there hoping for deuce of diamonds.

[AdamBragar]

I think a lot of players are not letting go of an overpair or even possibly A9 here. His lead for 200 makes me think he's got a piece of this board. His calling the raise makes me think 1010-QQ. Maybe you could check through on the turn and push a diamond, Q or A (or K if you've got balls) on the river.

[mgsimpleton]

raise less on flop = fold equity on turn. you have to pop it up to about 500 or 600 so when you stick your 1100 or 1200 into a 1300 or 1500 pot you definitely have folding equity.

as you played it, check behind on turn as you have no fold equity... he might call with worse diamond draw, that'd be sweet, but most likely a check behind saves you 900 bucks when you miss. obviously stick the rest in if you hit any pair/flush.

[RikaKazak]

Check turn