Double shootout, heads up, top two pair facing river all in

[chumsferd]

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One additional group of questions. How has this opponent played drawing situations? Any description besides passively? How has he played made drawing hands? Missed? This may be the most crucial read besides what you have already stated.

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Sorry yes, I missed this out, this is obviously important. He played them as passively as everything else. One hand, I don't remember the preflop action off-hand, I had AJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] OOP. The flop came 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Tx. I led out for pot, he called. The turn came blank I checked he checked. The river came blank I checked he checked. He showed 4x5x and my Ace high was good.

[chumsferd]

I was going to hold back longer before posting the results in case anyone else wanted to chime in... but, I folded so I don't think it makes much difference...

I wouldn't be thinking about it for too long against most opponents... but it felt much more uncomfortable against this guy. He's flopped two pair twice previously and the money went in on the flop. I called both times. This has been working for him, so I'm not sure why he would change tack now. This makes me think that if he had two pair (or better) before the river, I'd have heard about it before now. K3 is certainly likely, 67 is a concern, as is A2h which no one else in the thread mentioned yet{1}...

If my read is correct then I'm a ~3/1 dog here (6 ways he has K3 vs 17 ways for 67 and A2h). I'm getting < 2/1 from the pot. That means I have to make up around 10% of pot equity from the following:

1. He played a weaker two pair in an incredibly uncharateristic way (although, this would need adjusting down slightly since if I'm including weaker two-pairs I probably need to consider sets too).

2. He's fed up of getting pushed around and is making a stand with a top-pair type hand.

3. He's just got random.

(4. Anything else?)

I pretty much timed out. I couldn't convince myself that these things added up to to enough to pot equity to compensate against my read... so I folded. It seems the majority of you disagree. I'm unsure. Perhaps I was wrong...

{1} 5/3 might well be possible, but I didn't consider it at the time... that could be enough to swing me.