Winner-take-all play

[ChrisW]

Four players left in a winner-take-all NLHE event; the prize is a $2600 tournament seat.

Blinds are 1K/2K with 100 antes. The stack sizes are:

You: 58k
Villain: 102k
Opp #2: 45k
Opp #3: 62k

You post the BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villain makes it 6K to go on the button; only you call. Pot is 13,400.

The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You bet 10K, Villain thinks for three seconds and calls. The pot is 33,400 and you have 42K left. Turn is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], giving you a flush draw and a gutshot in addition to your bottom pair. Do you move in or check-fold (nothing else seems remotely rational)?

If anyone has any strong opinions about previous streets, I'd be happy to hear those too.

[runout_mick]

I think I would check, and call any bet less than 15k, fold to a larger bet. I really want to see the river here, but to drop below 25k chips doing so would be bad. You have a lot of outs , but it feels like he has something strong here. I think I can fold this if he bets hard, but with his stack he's calling a push, and he's very likely ahead at this point.