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#11
08-17-2005, 04:36 AM
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Re: First hand of an $11: AK in the BB
First of all you have 2 people left to act. They both called your initial raise, so who knows what they are going to do. That almost alone IMO negates whatever +EV those odds are laying you.
But the first thing I noticed when I read the HH is the size of the bet. Now that can go either way. But it just doesn't seem like someone would bet into 3 people with 3/4 of his stack if he didn't have something big. In higher stakes, players will reraise a smaller amount, tempting you to call. In lower stakes, the reraise to almost all of your chips is very common with big hands early on. I'm assuming you lost this hand to a PP. I'm gonna guess Qs or Js due to the fact you are really trying to make yourself think this was a +EV play. I could be wrong about that, and I also could be wrong about my analysis. 
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#12
08-17-2005, 04:47 AM
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Re: First hand of an $11: AK in the BB
[ QUOTE ]
At this point of the tourney, you should not be taking coinflips. Fold. [/ QUOTE ] This point is really important in SnGs.
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#13
08-17-2005, 05:03 AM
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Re: First hand of an $11: AK in the BB
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you lost this hand to a PP. I'm gonna guess Qs or Js due to the fact you are really trying to make yourself think this was a +EV play. I could be wrong about that, and I also could be wrong about my analysis. [/ QUOTE ] no, we all folded.
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#15
08-17-2005, 05:09 AM
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Re: First hand of an $11: AK in the BB
[ QUOTE ]
First of all you have 2 people left to act. They both called your initial raise, so who knows what they are going to do. That almost alone IMO negates whatever +EV those odds are laying you. But the first thing I noticed when I read the HH is the size of the bet. Now that can go either way. But it just doesn't seem like someone would bet into 3 people with 3/4 of his stack if he didn't have something big. In higher stakes, players will reraise a smaller amount, tempting you to call. In lower stakes, the reraise to almost all of your chips is very common with big hands early on. I'm assuming you lost this hand to a PP. I'm gonna guess Qs or Js due to the fact you are really trying to make yourself think this was a +EV play. I could be wrong about that, and I also could be wrong about my analysis. [/ QUOTE ] your analysis was exactly what i thought on the spot, and is why i folded. but afterwards, i was contemplating the hand again, and something didn't seem right (especially after i saw how the guy played for the rest of the tourney). i'm just wondering if all those factors made an argument for a call. what i'm saying is: the easy fold/no coinflips response doesn't cut it for me...without an explanation.
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#16
08-17-2005, 05:17 AM
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Re: First hand of an $11: AK in the BB
Your second read on the guy might have warranted an AI on that hand. But I just feel that making that call which basically is going to throw you AI is -EV in the long run, even at the 11s. You just don't want to gamble there - you can walk away with over 7/8 of your chips which is plenty to give you a shot at winning.
Don't worry about it - you made a good initial decision to fold even though this guy later showed you it may not have been.
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