Don't worry about smart play, just pot bet the best hand, they call.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
What I am worried about here is schooling, where the outs of the other fish collude to outdraw me. Keep in mind I am talking about just having top set with a one way hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa! Thinking cap is on too tight my man. This schooling principle is exactly what's working for you here.

All of your outs are golden. (Except the case 8, which I'll get to in a moment.) Your opponents, on the other hand, should they all choose to call a huge raise from you on the flop, will very likely be sharing outs. They are not getting as good odds in this scenario as they probably think they are, whereas your odds do not change at all

You've constructed examples that actually cripple the top set hand more than is likely to happen, since middle set is out there killing three potential outs. Yet, even with this tilting of the odds against the favor of top set, both hands are still clearly correct times to get all your money in. In the 60/40 dog case against 2 opponents, you're laying 3:2 and getting 2:1 on your money. How can you not take that bet?!?! You are making money in the long term, right?

In the 3:1 case, you're getting 3:1 on your money, so it's neutral EV. I still call for image purposes, and because 9 times out of 10 the cards won't be stacked against you this severly in other players' hands. (Much, much more likely there are two A2's out there competing for a low than a flush, wrap str, and middle set consuming some of your outs.)


The time to be more careful with top set is when you are heads up, not when the pot is multiway. In heads up play, you are frequently a dog against hands that will call or reraise you:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s Kh 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Kc Tc Kd 174 566 254 0 0 0 0 0.451
3d 2d Ah Th 254 254 566 0 610 0 0 0.549

or worse (although admittedly less likely):

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s Kh 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Kc Tc Kd 186 464 356 0 0 0 0 0.396
6d 5d Ah 7h 356 356 464 0 589 0 0 0.604

Edit: sh!t I didn't even notice you tied up the 4's until I saw Ribbo's post. You sly little monkey... Well Mxlpkxygshytyx, your post did serve the purpose of proving my point about the strength of top set in a multiway pot better than I could've.

[mxyzptlk]

What I forgot to mention in those examples is yes, you might be getting odds on your money, but if you like to push a lot on a coin flip, fine, but I like to wait for higher edges. For example, if a safe Qc falls:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 32 enumerated boards containing 8s Qc Kh 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Kc Tc Kd 9 17 15 0 0 0 0 0.406
Ac 8c 8d 7d 1 1 31 0 6 8 0 0.125
9d 4d Ah Th 5 9 23 0 0 0 0 0.219
5s 4s 7c 6h 0 5 27 0 11 6 0 0.250

you can now put in some big money and drive down the field. There is one train of thought that says if you push enough with a small edge, over the long term it will pay off and also give you an image of being an action guy. Hmmm. The donks at $200 PLO8 aren't gonna remember you, but the long term thing makes sense. However, getting all the money in earlier negates you advantage of being a better player because there is nothing to bet on later streets and you can't make your opponents fold. It's a fish's advantage to get all-in early to avoid having to make tough decisions later.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
The donks at $200 PLO8 aren't gonna remember you

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, they do. But that's not so important.

[ QUOTE ]
However, getting all the money in earlier negates you advantage of being a better player because there is nothing to bet on later streets and you can't make your opponents fold. It's a fish's advantage to get all-in early to avoid having to make tough decisions later.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong. You are exploiting your advantage of being a better player by getting the money in while you've got a guaranteed good situation, while your opponents, cumulatively, are stupid enough to commit their entire stacks with the worst of it.

PL structure largely eliminates the advantage fish have in getting stacks in early, especially with the 50BB structure Party moved to in March. The concept you're thinking of applies in NL games where weaker players can just shove in at any time to avoid the prospect of being outplayed.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
What I forgot to mention in those examples is yes, you might be getting odds on your money, but if you like to push a lot on a coin flip, fine, but I like to wait for higher edges. For example, if a safe Qc falls:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 32 enumerated boards containing 8s Qc Kh 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Kc Tc Kd 9 17 15 0 0 0 0 0.406
Ac 8c 8d 7d 1 1 31 0 6 8 0 0.125
9d 4d Ah Th 5 9 23 0 0 0 0 0.219
5s 4s 7c 6h 0 5 27 0 11 6 0 0.250

you can now put in some big money and drive down the field. There is one train of thought that says if you push enough with a small edge, over the long term it will pay off and also give you an image of being an action guy. Hmmm. The donks at $200 PLO8 aren't gonna remember you, but the long term thing makes sense. However, getting all the money in earlier negates you advantage of being a better player because there is nothing to bet on later streets and you can't make your opponents fold. It's a fish's advantage to get all-in early to avoid having to make tough decisions later.

[/ QUOTE ]

The sad thing is, and I say this completely seriously and you should listen to this:
You are the fish.

You have come onto the boards to make a point, we have irrefutably shown this to be flawed and you have chosen to completely ignore this sage advice. IF you have not come onto the boards to learn and to listen to the advice of others, why are you here?

[mxyzptlk]

I addressed this later, but if you want to head to ALLCAPS, then that's fine. Personally, i'd rather commit a small amount of chips on the flop until I see the turn, with a large field of callers. I'll give it up for a small loss if the flush or low hit, and push it hard otherwise. Less variability. The only reason not to do this if you think your opponents are capable of folding on the turn when a safe card hits for you. And if they are really bad, they won't.

The examples were there to prove a point. Most players aren't complete idiots, just bad players, and callers indicate your FH outs might be tied up for a reason, i.e., middle set.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
I addressed this later, but if you want to head to ALLCAPS, then that's fine. Personally, i'd rather commit a small amount of chips on the flop until I see the turn, with a large field of callers. I'll give it up for a small loss if the flush or low hit, and push it hard otherwise. Less variability. The only reason not to do this if you think your opponents are capable of folding on the turn when a safe card hits for you. And if they are really bad, they won't.

The examples were there to prove a point. Most players aren't complete idiots, just bad players, and callers indicate your FH outs might be tied up for a reason, i.e., middle set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I give up, you're clueless and have no interest in learning. The simple fact that you seem to think people are more likely to have middle sets and bottom sets rather than low draws, straight wraps and bad flush draws, shows your ultimately flawed thinking about low limit omaha.

[mxyzptlk]

ok I am starting to back off my earlier example -- I see your point. However, your point about heads up brings up another issue. If it is 6-way on the flop, and suppose you check-raise and get the field down to 1, and he has such a hand. Is this worrying about monsters under the bed? I don't think so. In a full-ring game with a field of 6, it's more likely something like that is out there against you. I really don't see the point in making yourself pot committed on the flop when you don't know what is going on out there.

Is your point that more often than not it is some idiot calling you than a better hand? This may be true at lower limits, but what about when you move up? Are you only gonna get called when you are beat?

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
ok I am starting to back off my earlier example -- I see your point. However, your point about heads up brings up another issue. If it is 6-way on the flop, and suppose you check-raise and get the field down to 1, and he has such a hand. Is this worrying about monsters under the bed? I don't think so. In a full-ring game with a field of 6, it's more likely something like that is out there against you. I really don't see the point in making yourself pot committed on the flop when you don't know what is going on out there.

Is your point that more often than not it is some idiot calling you than a better hand? This may be true at lower limits, but what about when you move up? Are you only gonna get called when you are beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've just check raised to get it heads up then you have gotten a bunch of dead money into the pot more than likely making it CORRECT for both players to be in the pot.

Its likely I will put in 45% of the pot to win 45%, my opponent will put in 45% to win 55% and the monkeys will have put in 10% of the pot to win nothing. This is why you do not worry about the check raise, instead you EMBRACE it.

[gergery]

I think mxyzp is confusing frequency of winning the pot with the EV.

If you are going to win a pot 15% of the time and lose that pot 85% of the time, but are only putting in 10% of the money, then this is a good thing for you. Your EV goes up when you do this. But of course your variance goes up too. The net effect is to win more money in total, but have the frequency of how often you win go down, and go thru higher swings. So your bankroll loves this (as long as it can handle the swings), but your emotional stability may not like it.

Its fine if you don’t want to push small edges. Its fine if you want to fold in the above example when you’ll only win 15% of the time. But you MUST then recognize that your earn rate will be lower, and you are in effect paying other players at the table to reduce your variance. But that may be a decision you are comfortable making. And its possible that your personal winrate at PLO8 200 might be higher than PLO8 100, even taking into account the variance-reduction premium you are paying, making it ok to play this way at that level.

Just don’t confuse yourself by thinking you are playing optimally.

--Greg

[Wintermute]

The issues of pot odds, dead money, and quality of players here make this a pretty clear cut argument. No matter what, in a multiway pot, chk-raising on the flop is the best play. Heads up, different story, but I prefer waiting a street to engage in significant action unless the other guy is a known idiot.

In general, your strategy might reduce variance, but it will also reduce win rate. I'm not sure why you're worried about variance anyway--as long as you're properly bankrolled for the game, why not seek to just maximize win rate?