Two turn checks

[spydog]

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do more people stab at boards like these when the flop gets checked through? Way too drawful for my taste to think i have a fair chance of taking the pot right there at a loose 5/10 party table. Am i wrong?

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No, you are right. This is not the best board to be taking a stab at.

[setjes]

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For those of you who say I shouldn't bet the flop in Hand 2; given that I did, do you bet the turn? Or are you check-calling flop and check-calling turn?

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I'd c/c the turn. Too many opponents to pick the pot up right here. There might also be someone pretending having the 7 (or actually got it), so you might get raised. Betting the flop is ok against passives I think, since it may buy you a free card on the turn

[Apocalypse]

How bad is it too fold against a turncr'se here. Imo most LAGS at the party are not going to crse the "PFR-with-an-ace-on-the-flop-he-raised-on-their-bet-and-fired-again-at-the-turn" with a hand your J10 beats (getting about 4/5:1 true odds)and with only 6 outs(and just one extra implied bet that could be even a reverse one). As a standalone hand i would conclude to fold this against even a LAG (who isnt utterly stupid or anything), but call this down about 40% of the time for the sake of letting him know you're not to be pushed around. Or am i letting him do just that with the above play? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

ps. I do favor betting the turn though here against a LAG

[private joker]

I've been check-raised a lot by aggressive players at 6-max. I call down because of reading this forum, and MHIG a lot of the time. Once I raised and got 3-bet on the turn with KQ on a KxxA board. I called down and he had KT. This makes me more intent on seeing showdowns than folding to bizarre plays.

[Apocalypse]

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Once I raised and got 3-bet on the turn with KQ on a KxxA board. I called down and he had KT.

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I think this is a necessity at some, but even at party relatively rare, kind of player(although still much more common than at other sites [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). These kind of players you can mostly pick out pretty easily pretty fast since they get caught way too much by loooose players who don't care whos raising, they have bottompair and are gonna show it down!. I wouldn't this kind of a situation as a reference to adapt your futureplay to with all lags.

I also dont think his play is that bizarre. The only thing is, lags (opposed to TAGS) make this play with A-verylowkicker against people who have shown this much force, wich imo is wrong against most opponents. But i just dont see em doing this a lot with hands like 109o....

still MORE INPUT PLEASE, i really wanna know how much i differ here from the general opinion in this forum and how serious this could be for me...

[paco]

Hand 1: If you're planning on calling a river bet UI, I think it is superior to bet the turn and take a free showdown. Same price, no free card, and LAG can be counted on to bet river after you show all that weakness.

Hand 2: I like a bet/fold. You'll get called by PP's. I don't think anyone is going to bluff raise this board, even a LAG (unless a maniac) so you can safely lay down if raised.

[private joker]

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Hand 2: I like a bet/fold. You'll get called by PP's. I don't think anyone is going to bluff raise this board, even a LAG (unless a maniac) so you can safely lay down if raised.

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You're talking about the river, correct? What about the flop and turn lines?

[MarkD]

Hand 1 is a hand that I have problems with. I especially had problems coming to grips with stripsqueeze's reply (since I respect his advice on these forums), so for the first time I ran a detailed EV analysis of the situation with the following assumptions:

a) if we are ahead then villain has 5 outs to beat us
b) if we are behind then we either have 5 outs or 0 outs

note: If you don't care to cehck my equations or read about the procedure I used to fine the EV and are just interested in my findings then skip ahead to the results and conclusions section.

These assumptions lead to the following:
Case 1: We are behind with 0 outs.
EV1 = -2

Case 2: We are behind with 5 outs.
EV2 = 5/46*9.4 – 41/46*2
EV2 = -0.761

Case 3: We are ahead and villain has 5 outs.
EV3 = 41/46*9.4 – 5/46*2
EV3 = 8.161

So our total EV is obviously just:
EVt = a*EV1 + b*EV2 + c*EV3

Where:
a is the probability of Case 1
b is the probability of Case 2
c is the probability of Case 3

Therefor we have the following equation:
a + b + c = 1

Now, what I did was create a matrix in excel. I assumed probabilities for a and b and from this calculated EVt. I then looked at this table to find the range that where we need to have the best hand, after being check raised, to make calling down correct (this value is c)

Results and Conclusions
What I found is that if c > 20% then we should always call down. If c<9% we should never call down. If 9% < c < 20% then it is foggy and it depends on how often our opponent will check raise with a dry ace (ie. it depends on the probability of b). As b -> 0 then c -> 20% and as b->1.0 then c->9% (which means that the maximum value for b is 0.91 of course).

I think these results are interesting and lead me to suspect that stripqueez is exactly right here: if we bet the turn and get check raised then we can safely fold. This really makes betting the turn look like the right play here.

edit: changed a sentence for clarity, no values have been changed.

edit2: If we change our villian's average number of outs against us to 3.5 in case 3 then the range of c doesn't change much 0.09 < c < 0.19

[baronzeus]

I like hand 2 a lot, and hand 1 I usually bet the turn. It opens you to a check-raise, but I think you're ahead of whatever Tx or 9x that he has often enough to make up for that.

[baronzeus]

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i'm not a big fan of betting the flop in hand 2 - one thing i hate about it is that i dont want to bet the flop and check the turn thereby announcing that my draw hasnt arrived

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[censored], I missed this. But then again I don't give my opponents much credit.