overbet time? 5/10 6-max

[gomberg]

Are you and bobhalford the same person? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[macdafunk]

I hope not. why?

[Leptyne]

An excellent hand choice. A lot of things going on here. Of course you pointed out the dubious turn call. I like your river push because it really puts the BB to a decision. He thought he had a good hand and was up against some pesky calling station that called a ridiculous turn bet on some kind of draw, probably a straight, OESD. You can't be on a flush draw, but may have hit one by accident. On the other hand, he can't just fold because a scare card hits. And I think that's the kind of player SB is: check/calls all the way, then pushes when the scare card comes. He can't pay you off (again?). I've been there too many times and know I should fold, but make that crying call. In the meantime the bitch is LHAO.

The biggest mistake I see is BB's turn bet of $150. That smells weak and gives you implied odds to call. I'm thinking BB wishes he had made a pot sized bet of $220.

[gomberg]

Yeah, if the guy bets the full pot on the turn, I have to fold unless I know he will pay me off almost every time. Even as is, it's a very risky call and I'm not positive it's that good OOP. I had to have the parlay of events knowing he was super strong, knowing he would call a huge river bet when a scare card comes, and hitting...

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, He insta-called w/ 22

[/ QUOTE ]

Have I declared my love for this game recently?

[captZEEbo1]

IMO, the biggest problem with calling these big bets on draws is the odds he cannot pay off anything (if he has 56 for instance), or the reverse odds of making a marginal hand (like pair of Ts) where you might pay off another bet. If you KNEW he had a set, I'd call the turn bet 100% of the time, knowing you'll get paid off EVERY time.

[gomberg]

I agree with you. From watching this player, I was ~80% that he had at least 2-pair on the flop. This was solidified on the turn with his 3/4ish follow-through bet. I'd seen this guy play a draw and a strong but not great hand on both the flop and turn before this hand, and this was much different from both those lines - so that was why I was so confident (and that I knew he was a weaker player with a big stack).

[Tony.T]

Nice post! Also think it is poor play untill the river

[ninjia3x]

I hear people talking about overbetting rivers, making it look like a bluff.

My question is, how often do you guys actually do this, over betting the river on a air bluff?

I'm thinking you must be doing this once in a while for someone to think that you can be bluffing right?

And when you overbet a the river after someone has shown some strength, and you do it as a bluff, isn't that highly -EV in most cases?

[gomberg]

I usually don't overbet rivers on a bluff. I do it against bad players with a great hand whom are capable of making big calls. If I'm playing good players, and they've seen me overbet with the nuts on a river vs. a bad player recently, I may do it as a bluff, but this situation is rare.

I know some players do it with a correct frequency on the river who post here. I believe AJo and Strassa may do it... not positive though.