top set runs into trouble

stu-unger · #1 08-15-2005, 10:15 PM

this hand came up a couple of days ago and i really am not sure about it.

read on villain is that he is a super loose donk. he is constantly getting out of line, but has come up with a few hands when it wasn't expected. his stack has been fluctuating constantly.

5-handed/.50bb
hero/UTG-(51.25)
villain/CO-(42.25)

Dealt to hero 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: Hero raises to 1.75, villain raises to 3 , 3 folds, Hero calls 1.25.

this guy has made a few of these donk raises pre-flop and i haven't had the chance to see a hand get shown down. honestly at this point i still think i have the best hand.

Flop (6.75): 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets 5 , Villain calls

Turn (16.75): 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets 11 , Villain raises to 22 , Hero pushes, Villain calls

and for fun sakes.....
River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i guess im wondering about the turn play here. is this just standard or should i stop and think after he donk bets me. at this point i was thinking AA-JJ so i just went with it knowing no matter what i had clean outs.

edited to say hero is the real donk that couldnt remember u guys needed to see my hand to help.

ActionMatt · #2 08-15-2005, 10:56 PM

i like the way you played it. you gotta stop and at least give some thought about him having the clubs. AK or AQ of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is possible unless u were sure he wouldnt reraise preflop with two high cards. I think you are correct to think he has AA - JJ and he is betting this aggressively just because he is a donk and isnt worried about the flush himself.

stu-unger · #3 08-15-2005, 11:40 PM

ya i think this was results oriented thinking. i just couldnt believe this donk got me to put my money in bad in this situation. i really have trouble with villains that i can't put on a hand.

this guy had K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if anyone cares

amoeba · #4 08-15-2005, 11:52 PM

I'm a weak tighty so I check call on the turn. and check call the river if I don't fill up, check raise if I do.

stu-unger · #5 08-15-2005, 11:57 PM

i would normally take this line also, but his pre-flop re-raise left me in outter space and really had me ready to go to the mat with the worst hand.

amoeba · #6 08-16-2005, 12:00 AM

no, its fine that you think you still have best hand when club comes but if you bet out, its gotta scare him.

I don't know, I guess you have to weigh against the downside of a 4th club.

async · #7 08-16-2005, 03:52 AM

If you had checked and he bet out it might be a different choice. However, after you bet on the turn, you were basically in. His push is offering you 2.8:1, if I calculated right. Let's say:

70% of the time: made flush
20% of the time: 1 club
10% of the time: AA/KK/QQ/JJ/nothing

He's 61% to win overall; only 1.5:1, so calling his push is hugely +ev.

If you had checked the turn and he pushed, it would be a lot more difficult; you'd be getting 1.47:1, I think, but you'd still have to put him on the made flush about 70% of the time for it to be worth it. If you think you check and he pushes the turn something like 60/40 (made/1club), he's only 56% to win with that range overall and so you'd even still have a clear call then.

If you actual put him on an overpair (1 club or no) 50%+, you're about 50% to win, and you're freerolling.