Is it broke? - QJo

[DcifrThs]

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for me this is also a fold pre-flop, unless limpers are bad. limping is not terrible though.

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uh, unless the limpers are the tightest players ever i play QJo in this spot in that position.

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flop raise is good.

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agreed.

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turn is fine.

river. value bet!

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agreed there too.

-Barron

[stoxtrader]

is it possible to quantify negative implied odds?

I don't think it's a layup, but particularly if early limper is less than 20 vpip a fold is a fine play. We are splitting hairs here though cause you have position and can play post-flop, so that is value.

[MrMonkey]

I feel like people have been throwing their 2 cents in about the river bet without really giving any concrete analysis. What do we really think utg has?

I think ruling out AJ because there was no pf raise is preposterous, this guy is 40/5. Not would alot of good 15/30 players stay away from AJ utg, a guy with pf raise 5% probably never raises AJ except maybe in late position.

42 hands isn't a big sample size but it's plenty to tell the difference between lags, calling stations, and more standard players.

No chance KJ check-raises the river, Hero obviously is on a J and K is obviously a scare card. In my mind we are looking at utg having AJ, QJ or JT. He's a loose passive player pf so he probably likes suited/connected stuff in alot of positions. After that it's a simple calculation on the river. He chops with QJ and he has JT the same number of times that he has AJ, so we are winning 50% when called. No reason to bet here incase he ever is getting tricky with KJ or JJ (and why shouldn't he have JJ, a 40/5 would never raise JJ in ep).

[andyfox]

Doesn't seem like JJ to me. If he limped pre-flop, he'd more likely try to get cute post-flop.

I would imagine either A-J, Q-J or J-T(s). A player is more likely to check the river when a K comes with J-T or Q-J than with A-J.

[MrMonkey]

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I would imagine either A-J, Q-J or J-T(s). A player is more likely to check the river when a K comes with J-T or Q-J than with A-J.

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Perhaps, but imo a 40/5 is a passive player who likes to try to make hands. This sort of player doesn't really care about whether they should bet AJ on a KJ river, they just see an overcard so they check-call. Against a more aggressive player I would agree to bet the river, but not against mr. 40/5

[Hamlet]

I think people are narrowing down UTG's hand too much. He's played 40% of his hands. He doesn't raise alot. He could have just about any Jack if it was suited. He could have A5 of hearts. He could have QQ and played it funny pre-flop.

There is no reason to think that his 3-bet standards are typical 2+2 standards. Lot's of people get over-aggressive on the flop.

I think you should bet the river, but with only 42 hands on my opponent, I can't say that it is a big mistake to take the free showdown. He could very well have AJ.

[legend42]

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That's a bad card to set up a river checkraise.

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Not if he thinks hero will value bet QJ, as most here are recommending.

[sfer]

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That's a bad card to set up a river checkraise.

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Not if he thinks hero will value bet QJ, as most here are recommending.

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Be the villain and give yourself either JT/AJ/QJ, which, consensus seems to think, is the likely range of your hands. You cannot convince me that checking intending to checkraise the river is a good play.

[sfer]

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I expect most 15/30 players to raise AJ before the flop.

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Well, he's got him at 5% PFR after 42 hands so its tough to say. My question remains, just what hands is UTG 3 betting that flop with? No draws to be had.

I'm having trouble imagining a hand that UTG 3 bets the flop with that we beat and that calls a river bet. JTs maybe? That's about it.

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My bad. I didn't notice the player's stats since they weren't at the top of the post. Anyway, I agree that AJ is unlikely given the PFR, but with a 40 VPIP I think this is a much easier value bet. J-anything is now likely.

[legend42]

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Be the villain and give yourself either JT/AJ/QJ, which, consensus seems to think, is the likely range of your hands. You cannot convince me that checking intending to checkraise the river is a good play.

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Sure, not with those hands. But KJ, 76, 55, 44, and JJ are also possibilities. I'm not saying a CR is likely, but being a fairly thin value situation already, it's a factor that might tip the balance towards a check.

But I agree with your other post that after noticing the 40%, a bet is probably best.