Short Stack Push

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is a good player from 2+2.


[/ QUOTE ]

you really think he'd be so dick as to put that as a read?

(i hope so....)

[Pat Southern]

I thought this was a good push at the time, and I'm still undecided. Including the blinds, there's 1350 dead in the pot, and I'll be risking 1300 to pick it up, therefore even if I'm called everytime I only need to be good 1/3 to make it +EV. If you include just a 10% chance that it gets folded around, I only need to be about 30.5%. However there is a chance that one of the limpers was slowplaying, but I think that's somewhat unlikely given my read of UTG, and I'm not really sure how to include that in an EV calculation. Assuming the 2+2er calls every time even against his limping range I feel that I'm better than 1/3:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,178,065,152 games 2.094 secs 562,590,808 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.1367 % 38.46% 00.68% { Q3s }
Hand 2: 60.8633 % 60.18% 00.68% { 88-22, AJs-A5s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo-A8o, KQo }

I also think something can be said about taking a slightly -EV gamble here to give me more options to accumulate chips.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this was a good push at the time, and I'm still undecided. Including the blinds, there's 1350 dead in the pot, and I'll be risking 1300 to pick it up, therefore even if I'm called everytime I only need to be good 1/3 to make it +EV. If you include just a 10% chance that it gets folded around, I only need to be about 30.5%. However there is a chance that one of the limpers was slowplaying, but I think that's somewhat unlikely given my read of UTG, and I'm not really sure how to include that in an EV calculation. Assuming the 2+2er calls every time even against his limping range I feel that I'm better than 1/3:

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming you get only one caller. Your odds are not so great against two callers with better hands.

Also, your chances of getting no callers are about 0%. You are more likely to get multiple callers than no callers.

[A_PLUS]

My problem with this is, you are in the SB, with no antes.
So there is no cost for passing up this spot for the next few hands.

If one of the 1st 2 limpers calls, you can rest assured the 2+2er does as well (more likely for multiple callers than you think), so you are probably worse off CEV wise than you think.


You can probably find a CEV neutral spot to double in the next few hands that will work a much higher % of the time.

If the table is very aggressive, I dont hate this push. Even with multiple callers, this is probably only slightly -CEV. There is definitely something to be said for taking the higher variance spot here.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If one of the 1st 2 limpers calls, you can rest assured the 2+2er does as well

[/ QUOTE ]

what? that's crazy. the 2+2'er will likely have something like 67s or 33. those are hands that might call b/c of the great pot odds if he's the first caller, but there's no way he's overcalling a push.

[Pat Southern]

Results: MP3 calls with A5o and CO calls with ATo

I think these are a couple similair hands with possible dead money in the pot where a push is debatable...
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero (t1040)
<font color="#C00000">UTG (t1532)</font>
UTG+1 (t9275)
UTG+2 (t4676)
MP1 (t2615)
MP2 (t6206)
MP3 (t3405)
CO (t2294)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t4375)</font>
SB (t3474)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls t150, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls t150, Button calls t150, SB completes, Hero....

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t815)</font>
MP3 (t2132)
CO (t8375)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t5126)</font>
SB (t2465)
BB (t4831)
UTG (t3405)
UTG+1 (t1994)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+2 (t5375)</font>
MP1 (t4374)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, UTG+2 calls t150, Hero...

[MLG]

With these hands where your in the blinds there's nothing wrong with seeing the flop and then committing chips if you flop anything decent.

As for the second hand, I'm fine with a push.