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#1
08-13-2005, 04:45 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
good luck with those 3rd places. you will never win a tournament if you fold here 100%. the ev calculations are so close that they dont really matter.
the fact is, you are not likely to see a better hand than this for a long time and this is a good chance to try to pick up the blinds. pushing accomplishes this the best. so you fold every hand on the bubble other than AA, KK, or AK? i dont get it. 
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#2
08-13-2005, 05:00 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
[ QUOTE ]
so you fold every hand on the bubble other than AA, KK, or AK? i dont get it. [/ QUOTE ] 22 is a better hand than AJ. You are pushing UTG with two big stacks in the blinds. If you were UTG+1 and only had one big stack to worry about, I think the EV would change significantly, and would guess that AJ would be a push.
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#3
08-13-2005, 05:04 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
[ QUOTE ]
22 is a better hand than AJ. [/ QUOTE ] Umm, no. Hot and cold, yes (although AJs is a favorite over 22, actually). But for pushing into a bunch of random hands, you definitely want the AJo.
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#4
08-13-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
well im wrong again. i should be getting used to this. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] i see the reasons why folding is correct, but i doubt that during a hand i would be able to let this go. and if i do play, i have to push.
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#5
08-13-2005, 05:55 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
2 big stacks? one has very simlar chips to you (+35) the other has twice your chips - so for one its out of the tourney if he gets it wrong, and for the other, its crippling time and worrying as they get shortstacked
So I would think that this make the push a +EV because they don't want to risk their tourney on a gamble - you are only going to risk a call with a really good hand, and he had that, but I don't see how their stacks are so much powerful from the pushers to make it an instant call with any two 'above average' hands. Cheers Damian [ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] 22 is a better hand than AJ. You are pushing UTG with two big stacks in the blinds. If you were UTG+1 and only had one big stack to worry about, I think the EV would change significantly, and would guess that AJ would be a push. [/ QUOTE ]
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#6
08-13-2005, 05:13 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
Is it really that hard to understand? The goal is to maximize EV, not win the tournament. Please explain to me how you are going to make more money by making -EV pushes such as this. You'e risking a healthy stack UTG when there is a guy with only 3xBB and another guy in the BB with almost half the chips in play for a payoff of only 300 chips! Are those 300 chips going significantly improve your relative chip position? NO. You are risking far too much for far too little. Even if you win those chips, you'll still only have around 2000 chips and won't be in a much better position to compete for first than you would be by folding.
So be patient and fold.
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