What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?

[silencee]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you would want to fold this is because raising to 3xBB is a bad idea for the reasons you stated in your post, and pushing is -EV. That leaves folding or limping. I'd rather not limp for 200 chips only to have the BB min bet the flop and force me to fold beacause I have no idea what hands I could be up against (not to mention the fact that you expose yourself to raise PF as well). That leaves folding as the only option left.

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i'd like to see the math that shows this as -EV. it feels to me like most responses in this thread are being too results oriented.

[BadMongo]

I used SGA to do the calculations, and I'm not going to go through the tediousness of writing it all out for you by hand. You can do it for yourself if you want, but here are the results according to SGA:

I assumed a fairly loose calling range for the other players would be appropriate, since this is a low buy-in SNG. I used 22+, A2+, KJo+, K9s+, QJs (23% of hands).

EV Fold = 26.7%
EV Push = 26.3%
EV Diff = -0.4%

So this is a pretty clear fold. The calling range of the big stack is by far the most important estimate, but the interesting thing is that even if we tighten up the big stack's range to an unrealistic 99+, AQ+, a push becomes only marginally +EV with a gain in equity of only +0.2%.

[USCSigma1097]

If you've calculated that pushing ace jack off four handed is negative ev i think you forgot to carry a two or something.

Sigma

[BadMongo]

If you think about the situation for a second and don't just look at your cards, you'll realize why it is -EV.

[Klak]

if you want a chance of winning, youre going to have to make some moves like this where youre not sure where ur at. i see this as a pure blind steal and im not really thinking about the few hands that dominate me calling. rasing any less just invites the BB to call and catch a pair or whatever.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
if you want a chance of winning, youre going to have to make some moves like this where youre not sure where ur at.

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That may be true, but I'd rather maximize $EV than first place finishes. Obviously its hard to know the exact EV of a situation like this while playing, but given that information and pushing anyway to 'play for first' is just throwing money away.

[MegaBet]

Patience is the key to winning...

[Seth Money]

I dont particularly care for AJ but 4 handed its a tight hand. I guess your question should be do you want to come in the money or have a really good chance of winning if you take the hand.. I personally would have raised to 600 if someone pushes at least you have two options, and the short stack isnt involved here.

[ilya]

This is a clear fold with these blinds, but that guy with AK made a horrible call. He had an even clearer fold.

Why does no one like limping here? It seems to me that if pushing is -EV and a 3BB raise most likely won't result in a successful steal, you might limp. If, after a limp, someone behind me raised I'd release AJo in this situation. But the possibility of seeing the flop cheaply seems enticing here.