NL Preflop Question

[Lmn55d]

EV of Allin:

You put him all in for his 300. There are 6 combos of TT, JJ, and KK. There are 3 combos of AA and QQ. There are 12 combos of AK. So 36 total combos. He folds 6/36 of these or 1/6. So 1/6 of the time you win 100+30=130.

5/6 of the time he has JJ-AA or AK and will call you. Against this range, you win about 29% of the time and lose 71% of the time (pokerstove). (.29)(330)+(.71)(-280)= -103.1.

So Total EV when you move all in is (1/6)(130) + (5/6)(-103.1) = -64.25

Folding has an EV of 0.

I'll try to do the EV of calling later. It's the most difficult though.

[Lmn55d]

ok EV of Calling:

If you don't flop and Ace of Queen, you don't have odds to call against his range of hands unless you have a flush draw or Straight Draw and even then you might not because he could have a set or you could be going for a split. So I guess I'll just consider whether you flop a pair or not. You flop a pair about 1/3 of the time.

If you flop a queen you are now ahead of TT and JJ and AK, which have 2,2, and 3 outs respectively. You have 5 outs against KK and 2 outs against AA. You have no outs against QQ.

If you flop an A, you are ahead of TT-KK (they have 2 outs) and have 3 outs against AK.

You also could flop both an A and Q, but the odds of this are 32:1 so I'll ignore it.

So about 4/6 of the time you call and fold the flop if it doesn't contain an A or K.

So 1/6 of the time you flop a Q you are ahead of 24 combos and behind 10. So 5/12 of the time that you flop a Q, you are ahead of your opponent. Half the combos have 2 outs (TT,JJ) and against the other half (AK) have 3 outs. So your opponent has 2.5 outs on average. 7/12 of the times you flop a Q, you will be behind. 6/10 of the time you will 5 outs (against KK), 3/10 you will have 2 outs (against AA), and 1/10 of the time you will have 0 outs (against QQ). So on average you have 3.6 outs.

Ok, so of the times when you flop a Q you will go on to win 5/12-(1/10)(5/12) or or about 42% of the time (I think this is right,??). You will lose 7/12-(1/7)(7/12) or about 58% of the time. I guess I could have just ignored the outs your opponents has because it's such a small number when multiplied by the percentage you're ahead/behind...unless I'm doing something wrong.

If you flop an Ace (1/6 of the time) you are ahead of TT(6)+JJ(6)+QQ(3)+KK(6) or 21 combos and behind AK (8 combos). So you are ahead 21/29 of the time and behind 8/29 of the time. We'll ignore outs to make this simpler.

Ok. Total EV of calling:

(4/6)(-80) + (1/6)(.42)(330)+(1/6)(.58)(-280)+(1/6)(21/29)(330)+(1/6)(8/29)(-280) = -30

Folding has highest EV so fold is right.

EDIT: I forgot to make the 80 a -80 in my previous post of this which is why calling came out to be higher EV...it is actually negative EV.

[cwsiggy]

I've always been curious how one figures all this math out in the heat of the moment. I can understand putting people on hands and knowing if you are a favorite, but all the EV weighted calcs seem a lot harder to do a the table. Does one get better as situations repeat???? Do yo study common structured hand problems and as the closest ones come up say "oh that's that one" - fold
Someone enlighten me.

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]

I've always been curious how one figures all this math out in the heat of the moment. I can understand putting people on hands and knowing if you are a favorite, but all the EV weighted calcs seem a lot harder to do a the table. Does one get better as situations repeat???? Do yo study common structured hand problems and as the closest ones come up say "oh that's that one" - fold
Someone enlighten me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I think "all this math" is mostly useful for figuring out common situations away from the table, so you have some mathematical point of reference when making decisions at the table. I know that's how I treat these kinds of analysis.

Since poker is a game of incomplete information, most decisions come down to trying to determine what's going on in the hand and basically making an educated guess. Studying these kinds of hands is just one of the disciplines that helps you guess correctly more of the time.

[Voltron87]

doing the long math away from the table helps you get a feel for it and helps you guesstimate in 20 seconds or so.

[cwsiggy]

Very good. Seems like a good idea to do a bunch of common scenario hand analyses. Doesn't seem that hard to do with a spreadsheet and pokerstove. Thanks for answering my question.

[kitaristi0]

Automuck.

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I've always been curious how one figures all this math out in the heat of the moment. I can understand putting people on hands and knowing if you are a favorite, but all the EV weighted calcs seem a lot harder to do a the table. Does one get better as situations repeat???? Do yo study common structured hand problems and as the closest ones come up say "oh that's that one" - fold
Someone enlighten me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I think "all this math" is mostly useful for figuring out common situations away from the table, so you have some mathematical point of reference when making decisions at the table. I know that's how I treat these kinds of analysis.

Since poker is a game of incomplete information, most decisions come down to trying to determine what's going on in the hand and basically making an educated guess. Studying these kinds of hands is just one of the disciplines that helps you guess correctly more of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

hypothesize! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[driller]

What the other posters said. FWIW on the WPT show,
"Poker by the Book" where David and several other famous poker book authors (Brunson, Caro, Helmuth, TJ, etc.) played (David won), they kept asking David what the odds were on various all in's. David was in the ball park, but I don't think he got very many exactly right.

[Lmn55d]

Note: It seems that if you consider the flops where you flop trips, two pair, or a flush draw (flops allowing you to make a +EV call), the call is closer to being correct, but still not as good as folding