JJ on capped pre-flop

[mojobluesman]

I'm pretty sure I misplayed this hand, but I want to think out loud about what I should have done and why and then get feedback about the thinking and not just the actions.

The pre-flop was capped. So I think it's fairly likely my opponent had AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ (and without a read maybe AQs or TT).

There are 16 combinations of AK and 6 each for AA, KK, QQ. There is 1 for JJ and 6 for TT (lower probability) and then the rest of the lower probability hands that might be played.

I was probably in the neighborhood of 50-50 or a little less to be tied/ahead or behind.

When he lead out on the flop, I should have raised for 2 reasons.

1. Get rid of third player if possible.

2. If he (or the other player) re-raised, I would have known I was beaten and could safely fold. It would have cost me an extra SB on the flop, but I would have saved 2BBs on the Turn and River.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (11.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

[TomBrooks]

Yep, raise the flop.

[mojobluesman]

Was all my thinking essentially correct?

[Big Folder]

Any idea how aggressive utg is post flop?

I think you have to raise here, you have an overpair and a weak backdoor flush and straight to toss in there. If this guy is passive a raise will let you know if he has you beat most likely if he reraises(although on the other hand some players would start calling down here to a raise even with AA,KK,QQ). You should also think there is a chance he has AKs which is worth a preflop cap here.

But if you raise on the flop and he three bets I think you have to peel one off and see the turn hoping for that miracle jack and maybe one of your backdoors get there(you'd be getting around 17.5 to 1 to call). If none of these happen I think you can fold to a bet on the turn though this might be giving the villian too much credit with no read.

The other option would be to call down unless an ace or king falls.

[Dave G.]

I'd raise the flop too, but not to get rid of the third player. He's getting 8.5:1 to call your flop raise so he's probably going to stick around no matter what. Infact, if you are behind here, you don't really want him to fold anyway, you'd prefer if he kept putting money in to increase your overlay for your set.

If you catch your J on the turn, you'll probably have him beaten as well, so you can think of him as dead money. Also, folding him out doesn't help when you're still way behind UTG; your equity is still very low if you get it HU and UTG has AA - QQ.

The main reason you should raise the flop is because if UTG 3-bets you know you're screwed and it's not AK or anything. You can call the 3-bet and fold the turn unimproved, which saves you 1 BB.