A leak in my game

act · #1 08-13-2005, 09:56 AM

Hi everybody

I just discovered what is probably a leak in my game. I thought i would post it here since others might have the same problem.

It seems i am too weak when somebody has open raised. Let me illustrate it with an example:

blinds 25/50. I am in the bb with pocket fives. I have 820 chips including my blinds. Player on the button (solid but can make moves) open raises to 150 (out of his 1200 stack), sb folds.

I would fold, thinking that in most cases its a coinflip and sometimes im far behind. I think that is a terrible move in most circumstances. Here is why:

Lets assume button raises with AK - A9, KQ, KJ, KT and 66-AA. Further lets assume that if i go all-in he will fold AT, A9, KT, KJ, 66, 77.

He will fold 42 % of his hands. in 35% of the hands i will have app 55 % chance of winning, and in 23 % of the hands i will only have app 20% chance of winning.

if he folds i win 175. If he calls and i win i win 845. If i lose i lose 845. If i fold i lose 50.

Now the EV calculation if i push(discarding split pots etc.):

0.42*175+0.35*(0.55*845-0.45*820)-0.23*(0.2*845 - 0.8*820)=-6.6

If i fold i get -50. A very big difference.

In the unlikely event that he folds nothing to my push its a bad play unless he opens with more hands in which case it might turn positive again.

It supprised me that pushing is usually the best move (at least in a T$ EV sence).

bennies · #2 08-13-2005, 10:02 AM

nice post
you (and now also I) know what to do next time in this spot...

Xippy · #3 08-13-2005, 11:53 AM

You also left the "Don't F with my BB" equity out of the equation, which must be worth -6.6.

Freudian · #4 08-13-2005, 12:05 PM

I don't see it as a leak. It is common sense not to resteal with 55 (unless you have a specific read on the raiser). Tight raisers will have a range that owns 55. Loose raisers will not fold enough.

act · #5 08-13-2005, 12:06 PM

"You also left the "Don't F with my BB" equity out of the equation, which must be worth -6.6. "

very true [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Xippy · #6 08-13-2005, 12:25 PM

I haven't done EV calculations myself, I need to, and I want to understand the assumptions. With that in mind, please correct me if I'm wrong.

You describe the button as "solid but can make moves." It's folded around to him on the button, but then you prescribe a specific range of what (I think) are reasonable raising hands with two to go. Doesn't your math proceed on the assumption that he's not on a pure button steal, and shouldn't you try to assign that some percentage under the circumstances? And, doesn't that increase the EV of reraising all the more?

Nick B. · #7 08-13-2005, 12:32 PM

What's that?

nevermind, just a flop.

act · #8 08-13-2005, 01:15 PM

Yeah i think your right - its wrong to describe him as a guy who makes moves. I guess solid is more right.

If he raises on a broader range of hands two things will probably happen:

1) he folds more to my resteal
2) The chance im winning when he calls will increase.

So your right - it makes the move better in that case. He woukd have to be a true rock to make the move bad based on T$. Of course T$ isnt everything, and making this move on the button might be -EV.

MegaBet · #9 08-13-2005, 02:50 PM

I would push.

BadMongo · #10 08-13-2005, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What's that?

nevermind, just a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking a flop for nearly 20% of my stack with a small pair out of position doesn't sound like a good idea to me. It's a push or fold situation. I think the correct play is very read dependent and I'd probably push in many cases, but my default is to fold.