Estimating fold equity (especially in 6-max)

[TheRapist99]

I run into this situation all the time and I'm not quite sure how to correctly assess my options.

6-max I'm in the CO. 2 limpers, one loose, VPIP 55, one a little tighter, VPIP of 30, I raise with QJs blinds fold limpers call.

Flop comes K83 rainbow and it's checked to me, pot is 7.5 bb. Both of these guys will fold more than 15% of the time (probably 25% of the time) and maybe 10% of the time I have the best hand so I bet. They call.

Turn comes a 6 and it's again checked to me, pot is 5 BB, seems like they'll fold so I bet and I'll lay down to any kind of aggression here, they call.

River comes whatever, it gets checked through and a pair of 3s holds up.

That seems relatively standard (right?), but what about instead if I see on my PokerAce HUD that limper 2 has only folded the flop 1/20 times and the turn 3 / 19 times? Seriously, I see this all the time. If that's the case then this bet seems like it would not be +EV at all. However if I check I invite a donk bet on the turn from whatever and I should probably dump my queen high trash hand.

Say we have the same scenario above except 1 limper ahead of me, I raise, and button with a VPIP of 85 cold calls. If I check through the flop I'm inviting donkey over there to bet out and I probably forfeit my share of the pot like that (or do I?)

Basically if you couldn't figure it out my problem is that I feel like I'm really flying blind and donating chips to passive calling stations in HU/SH situations. What should I be looking at when deciding whether to lead with garbage? I feel like I'm missing something really big here.

[Marquis]

Easy bet on the flop and check on the turn for me. What would they call with on a K83 rainbow flop?

[Aaron W.]

A good estimate that is that folding two players on the turn is rare.

[fizzleboink]

After both called on the flop I'd be done right there. The fact that it is a drawless board actually adds to my reason for giving it up. That means they can't be calling with a draw, because there are none. They've paired up, and if they're the calling station type (sounds like they are) then they'll take their bottom pair to the river and take your money.

[TheRapist99]

[ QUOTE ]
A good estimate that is that folding two players on the turn is rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say it's one guy instead on the turn and he very rarely folds like I described above. You see a lot of these guys at 1/2 6-max... the problem is the pot is raised and its relatively large, but if you are OOP and you check to him, he'll often just bet out and take the pot.

Or maybe not, hell I don't know maybe that's less common than I think because I very rarely give up the initiative and I think it's a nasty leak.

Is there any way I can measure my spewage in PT?

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
A good estimate that is that folding two players on the turn is rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite the double "that", this is correct.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A good estimate that is that folding two players on the turn is rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say it's one guy instead on the turn and he very rarely folds like I described above. You see a lot of these guys at 1/2 6-max... the problem is the pot is raised and its relatively large, but if you are OOP and you check to him, he'll often just bet out and take the pot.

Or maybe not, hell I don't know maybe that's less common than I think because I very rarely give up the initiative and I think it's a nasty leak.

Is there any way I can measure my spewage in PT?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you really suspect that they're stealing pots, throw in a turn check-raise every now and then (NOT EVERY SINGLE TIME and NOT ONLY WITH JUNK). But make sure you know villain is capable of trying to pull a turn pickup before doing this, otherwise you spew twice as much.