How often do turn checkraises get 3-bet?

kelvin474 · #1 08-12-2005, 03:32 AM

Say you're either OOP against a PFR, or you raised PF and got donked into on the flop. You either called or check/called the flop and on the turn, you have a very weak hand, but a draw to a very strong hand, such as a straight draw or flush draw. Lets assume you essentially never will win unimproved.

For a typical drawing hand, you might have somewhere between 1/5 to 1/4, up to even 1/3 for the straight+ flush draws. Usually you would be around the lower end of that range. I'm calling the chance you suck out "S".

Anyway, You check and your opponent bets. There are now about 4 BB in the pot. Lets assume that no matter what you do, you're giving up UI on the river, and that your opponent will pay one bet on the river if he stays in on the turn and you hit.

So I figured the EV (in BB) of
folding = 0
calling = 6*S-1
checkraising with the above river plan = Fold*4 + Threebet*(10*S-3) + Call*(8*S-2).

My question is, what are reasonable estimates for how often the opponent will call, raise, or 3-bet? Even a ballpark like "people usually call, and fold 2x as often as they 3-bet" would be interesting. I am playing 5-10 6max here.

Please let me know your thoughts, as well as if you think some of my assumptions make the analysis worthless. Thanks!

kelvin474 · #2 08-12-2005, 12:57 PM

bump because this is definitely a better post than "if you limp-reraise you are gay".

dave44 · #3 08-12-2005, 01:59 PM

This is a supremely vague situation. Try developing an example hand more. Then put your opponent on a range of hands, and think about how he would react to your raise with those hands to figure out the answer to your question.

Catt · #4 08-12-2005, 03:08 PM

26.7% unless it's a Tuesday and then it is 29.4%.

Seriously -- your question is unanswerable since the frequency of being three-bet is dpeendent on your opponent, your image, the prior action, and the board, among other things. Trying to answer with some random % may be a fun exercise to feel through the formula you've written out, but it is nothing more than complete guesswork that won't translate to actually implementing the semi-bluff C/R more effectively at the table.