3 hands

[Tosh]

You obviously made a lot of money from these hands but I think all 3 should have been chucked pre flop.

[CMangano]

I usually fold Axs to a raise always. Here he is getting 2:1 on his call and there is no guarantee anyone behind him is coming along. He has no odds to flop a four flush (about 8:1) and has no implied odds to draw, especially if it becomes heads up between him and the pf raiser on the flop. I think this is a fold.

If you have 5 people calling 2 bets ahead of you, you are still only getting 5:1 on your call (assuming you are calling 2 cold). This call is probably close between right and wrong given implied odds, but you have to be sure most everyone will pay you off when you hit your hand.

[CMangano]

Before the flop you are getting 2:1 on your call and the odds of flopping a four flush are 8:1. To make this call correct you need 7 other people calling this raise. However, with implied odds you could probably be ok with 4 or 5 if you are sure they will pay you off when you make your hand. In the hand in question the bb also calls, so 3 other people are in with you.

You flop a backdoor flush draw. The odds of getting your two suited cards on the turn and river are 24:1. 2 people have put in one bet ahead of you, so you are now getting 10:1 on your call which isn't even close. But, those aren't the real odds since the turn will decide how much farther you go. So, let's look at the true odds you are getting.

* NOTE *
Sklansky outlines this exact situation in TOP on page 51 in his Effective Odds section if you have the book handy
* END NOTE *

Using Sklansky's odds (which aren't exact but are easy to use for math purposes), the odds are 1/5 of hitting a card of your suit on both the turn and river and you will hit both of your suit 1 in 25 times. Best case scenario for you is everyone staying in until the river and then all putting in 2 bets when you raise with the nuts (this will hardly ever be the case, however). So, that means the one time you win you will win the 6bb's in the pot now, plus 4bb's on the turn and 8bb's on the river for a total of 18bb's.

1 time you will win 18bb's.

20 times the turn will be an offsuit and you will fold losing 1.5bb's for a 30bb loss.

4 times you will hit your suit on the turn and miss the river losing 2.5bb's for a 10bb loss.

So, for every 25 hands that you play in this situation you will lose a total of 22bb's (17 - 30 - 10). And this is the BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO! If you only get 2 or 3bb's on the river you lose even more.

If you have a copy of TOP check out the odds section. If you don't have a copy, it is well worth the read.