Is this a clear value bet?

[Hojglad]

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If you can come up with a good range that leads to you winning this pot 55% or more of the time,

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You don't need to be ahead 55% of the time to bet here.

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I agree with this. I just referenced SSHE cuz I thought I saw this in there, but I couldn't find it. My apologies. What I did find though was that Miller says you should bet when you would call one bet if you checked. I think that applies here and shifts my line to a river bet.

[eviljeff]

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Miller says you should bet when you would call one bet if you checked.

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the exception to this is if you think a check might induce a hand that would have folded to bet

[Hojglad]

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Miller says you should bet when you would call one bet if you checked.

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the exception to this is if you think a check might induce a hand that would have folded to bet

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Ya, I had a pretty lengthy discussion with DeathDonkey about this one, and we came to the conclusion that since this guy is a LP idiot, when he bets, he either beats us or ties us. Betting is right because there is a chance he will fold a queen or call with a 9 or something stupid like that.

[aK13]

He seems like the type who would call down with any PP, or any piece, much of which we are ahead.

I think the value is pretty clear.