QQ, A on the flop

[Dirtsqrl77]

Most concerned about the opponent Octavian_C. He is a succesful Pokerroom tourney player. i.e. - Final table $1000 Grand Tourney III, and 2004 WSOP entry.
He is a solid player, and rarely bluffs(I have never seen him bluff, but I am sure it happens occasionaly).
Below is the hand in question:

No-limit Texas Hold'em $50+$4 (real money), #1,156,051,297
50+4 European Daily Multi Table Tournament, 10 Aug 2005 4:35 PM ET
Seat 1: Fesser ($513 in chips)
Seat 2: Octavian_C ($11,710 in chips)
Seat 3: bubba69629 ($6,700 in chips)
Seat 4: HERO ($11,285 in chips)
Seat 5: QueenBeeXXX1 ($4,170 in chips)
Seat 6: JoeytheFish ($4,295 in chips)
Seat 7: Geffman ($5,170 in chips)
Seat 8: peanut337 ($1,792 in chips)
Seat 9: QUADZILLA__1 ($2,101 in chips)
Seat 10: sour apple ($2,470 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Fesser posts blind ($100), Octavian_C posts blind ($200).

PRE-FLOP
bubba69629 folds, HERO(QS,QD) bets $650, QueenBeeXXX1 folds, JoeytheFish folds, Geffman folds, peanut337 folds, QUADZILLA__1 folds, sour apple folds, Fesser calls $413 and is all-in, Octavian_C calls $450.

FLOP [board cards AC,5C,2H ]
Octavian_C bets $500, Hero....

His weak bet tells me he probably has an A, but most likely something like A- J,10,x suited. I have a equal stack, and I have only shown down monster hands. Is this an opportunity to play back at the raiser and claim AK-Q??? Or is this time to let go????

I find a leak in my game is laying down JJ, QQ when there i light action, so this is why I need advice here.

[woodguy]

There 2800 in the pot when it gets to you, so to make it look like you are protecting your big A against the flush you should make it ~2500 to go.

If he has a weak A it *may* make him lay it down, if he has 2 clubs it about right to make him lay that down too.

If he calls, be done with the hand.

He may be trying to buy a cheap club too as he had the expressed and implied odds to call with pretty well any two.

Since you have ~55BB's you can afford to bet to steal the pot/protect your hand here.

He also has to think that he has to show down the hand since the shortstack is all in, so he pretty well has to have to goods to get involved after your raise.

You have to think about that as well, and if you end up showing your semi-bluff, you can use that image to bet your big hands hard later and get paid off if anyone was paying attention.

Is he the type to make a weak lead with a big hand to induce a raise? If so, I may call and see what he does on the turn.

He also may be trying you on with 2nd pair, so I like raising here.

Regards,
Woodguy

[IHateKeithSmart]

I like woodguy's line. Barring a perfect read, I never fold/call here.

[Dirtsqrl77]

Thx Wood(congrats on the wedding btw) and Ihate,

Hand was actually pretty uneventful. I raised his raise triple his bet, 1500. He thought about it and folded. He said he had AJ, so basically I made a great read. As I showed done QQ he laughed and mentioned that it was the last raise he would respect.

I think your suggestion of raising the full pot size is great advice, and it is something I would do without hesitation on a stone cold bluff. For some reasonign

Much appreciated advice

[locutus2002]

I think its time to let go.

Clearly the situation is complex, my crude estimate does not support the raise, and I think its bad on strategic grounds.

CRUDE ESTIMATE:

ASSUMPTIONS: villain has an ace (hero does not bluff); hero quits after betting T2500; villain releases all but AQ++.

Hero has 1/3 equity in the center; if he can drive villain out his equity goes up to 1/2 an incease of 17% (50-33) X T1500 = ~ T225.

Hero bets T2500 to win T725 (T500+T225) and loses ~100% of the time when called. So villain has to fold ~80% of the hands he would lead with.

there are ~140 hands with an ace
~10 hands with sets, ~16 hands with str8.
villain calls ~30 of the aces ak,aq,a5,a2, the sets and the str8
~56 hands/~166 hands or about 1/3 or the time. Folding only 2/3 of the time. The estimate is not even close to supporting the bet.

STRATEGIC GROUND

If it was close, hero should avoid large variance confrontations that aren't EV+ when he has so many chips.

villain is a player who does not bluff very much, so inorder to make chips he must be strong at calling with marginal hands (or just lucky all the time). You are playing to his strong suit and he may call with a marginal ace.

Villain is a strong player, and will be able to work through complex situation.

Hero will have to show hand if villain folds. I don't know how this will affect hero's image, but I would generally think showing this hand supports playing a tighter game after raising on an ace flop.

[woodguy]

Thanks for the congrats!

WHen you raise it to 1500 to go, the pot is then 3400, and he only needs to call 1000, so he has the odds to chase the flush, so a little bigger is better to cut down on the odds you offer.

What did the SB have?

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

The BB was getting great odds to call PF and make a weak bet on the flop, quit seeing monsters under the bed.

Raising here costs you the least to find out if he has an A, and folding is bad.

Regards,
Woodguy

[locutus2002]

"He is a solid player, and rarely bluffs(I have never seen him bluff, but I am sure it happens occasionally)."

I'm just going with what's stated.

I don't think raising THIS player under these conditions is good. If you think villain can lead without an ace here say so, don't make it personal.

I hear and respect what you are saying about raising with the QQ, just not here.

I sleep with the light on.
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[woodguy]

Sorry if you took that wrong, its not personal, just a little weak.

I went with his read too, the guy is good, if he's good he doesn't need an A to bet, and he's capable of laying down a weak A to aggression.

Gotta raise here.

Turn the lights off, and its ok to let your leg hang out from under the covers too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy