Curious about a turn call

[Pil Sung Do]

villian has 22.90
I have 25.05

this is .10/.25 PLO (6 handed)

I am dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button.

Everyone limps to me, I call, blinds call.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to the CO who bets the pot ($1.45), I call, blinds fold, other two players call.

Turn is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Checked to CO who bets the pot again ($6.95).

Should I call? Should I have called the flop bet?

[Tilt]

I like a flop call here. Raising with the flush draw out there would be a bad idea.

I would call the turn. If you might get callers behind you, your equity in this pot is likely near par for an adequate return. More importantly, however, is that your draw is more disguised than the flush draw, and since you also have position you have a good chance of fully stacking the aggressor if you hit. And it will be an easy fold if you whiff.

[barongreenback]

I count 8 nut outs (I think). With callers behind you I'd expect some of these to split. I doubt that CO will keep going into multiple players if a str8 hits and you won't get too much from worse hands held by the other players. I go for a fold but it's close. I don't know whether extra callers helps or not. If it's HU on the river your odds have worsened but everything else improves.

I'm fairly new to this so I'll see what others have to say.

James

[n1bd]

[ QUOTE ]
I count 8 nut outs (I think). With callers behind you I'd expect some of these to split. I doubt that CO will keep going into multiple players if a str8 hits and you won't get too much from worse hands held by the other players. I go for a fold but it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]
This analysis is really good, but for me it points to any easy fold instead of a close fold. Some of your outs are chopping most of the time if one of the other callers comes, which reduces your effective outs to like 5-6 (?) on average (the 7s are helped by your 9-blockers). All your outs are vulnerable to redraws. There is some small chance of being check-raised. It's just an 8 outer at best (4.5:1) so you have to get paid off most of the time when you hit.

The flop call is ok, but I think folding is better. You have the button, but have horrible position relative to the bettor and might face a check-raise. If the CO tends to bet the flop and check the turn, then calling is more attractive.

The bottom line is, your draw isn't very strong; you don't have many outs and are vulnerable to redraws.

[45Player]

Firstly I think folding on the flop is very weak. You're unlikely to get raised by either of the other two callers because if they had anything they should have bet into that board.

I would probably raise all-in on the turn. It's unlikely you'll be called by either of the others but if they call with only a flush draw then that's fine. The CO probably will call but he may also fold (e.g. if he has a flush draw or two pair). He may even fold bottom set because you could have played 3 Kings like this. Even if he doesn't fold, you may be ahead. And if he does call with say a set, you may have 16 outs out of 42 cards which is almost good enough, given the pot odds. So, giving the chance that he may fold, I would say this is the best play.
Even if it all goes horribly wrong (e.g. he has top set and flush draw), people will be more inclined to pay you off on your good hands later.

To those who advocate folding on the turn, I think this is way too tight. It may be a 'safe' play but if you play this safe, even the loose fish will be wary of you.

Calling is not soo good either as then you're encouraging the other players to call, and if you hit you're probably just going to split the pot at the end, as nobody will call a bet who doesn't have the nuts also.

[barongreenback]

If you're raising the turn do you prefer this to a flop raise and why?

[45Player]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're raising the turn do you prefer this to a flop raise and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually I didn’t even consider raising on the flop – I was just responding to the OP’s questions.
However, while I think raising on the flop is better than folding, I think that in this situation, raising on the turn is better than raising on the flop. My reasons are :

1. If you reraise on the flop, and are called, you may have a difficult decision on the turn or river with 75% of your stack left.

2. If you reraise on the flop, the other 2 players fold, and you are reraised all in by the CO, then you’re in another bad situation.

3. Neither of the other two players has shown any aggression on the flop or turn, so a reraise on the turn will probably knock them out, whereas they may have called your raise on the flop or even reraised. If one of them calls your raise on the flop (with say the nut flush draw), and then the CO reraises all-in, you’re in a bit of trouble. If you don’t call, you’ve just thrown away 25% of your stack. If you do call, then the other player will call with his nut flush draw. So you’re up against a set and the nut flush draw which is bad news.
However, if you reraise on the turn, the other players should throw away their flush draws.

I’m not sure how good the folding equity of a raise on the flop is. It’s definitely better on the turn. Plus, you don’t want a flush draw to call you on the flop (because of the strong possibility of the CO reraising which would mean that you’re all-in against a set and a flush draw). However you don’t mind a flush draw calling you on the turn.

One possible advantage of raising on the flop is that the turn may be checked to you, and you can get a free card ? But then again, do you want your opponents to get a free card also ?

Anyway, that’s the way I see it. I don’t play much PLO online but I play a lot in live games so maybe that is a factor. I didn’t do a whole lot of calculations here, it’s just what I would instinctively do in that situation. I’m open to counter-arguments, maybe I’m way off base.