15-30 Do you change your plan on the turn?

[Pot-A]

What a yucky turn card. I'd probably call it down, but I think folding isn't out of the question. A raise doesn't buy you anything unless he picked up the flush draw - he has the ace or he doesn't.

[rtrombone]

Basically, no. If the two clubs had flopped, I'd say yes.

What are the odds that he has two clubs? It's definitely possible, but they've gotta be considerably less than 50/50 right?

Plus, it would take a very aggressive opponent to 3-bet when Clarkmeister has basically announced he has AK or better. It's true that you will find these types of players at Commerce. I guess it depends on how likely you think a guy will make this play.

But again, I put him on one pair or aces up before I put him on a pair + club draw. Remember, a good, aggressive player will bet his one pair again when the ace hits.

[Maroon]

Hmmm. An "overaggressive but thinking" player would have capped preflop with AK or QQ, and the only hands containing a ten that they would both call 2 bets and then check-raise this flop with are TT, JhTh, or JcTc. Would anyone call two bets with AhTh if you were the BB here? I wouldn't.

Then an Ace comes with a flush draw, and he leads out anyway. Could the Ace have hit him? Wouldn't an overaggressive type reraise with AK preflop? And would any thinking player check-raise that flop with AQ or AJ? Seems to me he either has the club draw himself with precisely JcTc, he made an odd call preflop with AhTh, or he flopped a set.

I could be wrong, but if I am, I suspect this person is not as much a "thinking" player as you give him credit for being.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: Ac BB bets. Change plans?

Your move.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the table wasn't so aggressive, I think I would do the raise the turn as the last money I put in the pot play. If you can safely fold to a 3-bet, I would raise the turn and probably check it down on the river. If you can't I would just call him down on turn and river.

[mikelow]

Back from torrid Europe (the weather--not my poker play).

I'd say a call on the turn, but no more. Game is tilted so I'm in this all the way. Raise is questionable as you could be up against Ax.

[Clarkmeister]

I thought this one was particularly tough because of the all in player. When the BB bets into me, there is 2BB in the side pot. I certainly could have BB beat. But the initial preflop raiser in EP, while on tilt, certainly could have an ace the way he played the hand.

So I thought all 3 options were possible. Headsup, I would never consider folding, but I think its an option given that even if I do have the BB beat, I still have to survive a possible ace from the all in player. With a mere 2BB in the side pot, I think this is a legitimate way to go.

Calling down is certainly a reasonable option, especially since I almost certainly have 2 clean outs, even if I am behind.

Raising is reasonable as well, but not if I can't fold to a 3-bet. Its even better if BB will muck a 5 out hand (unlikely, but possible). Many of you want to call down if BB 3-bets me on the turn, and I can't see that as a superior play to just calling down. I think raising is only viable if its with the intention of folding to a raise, and value betting the river if just called.

Anyways, I don't know what is the right option.

In the hand, I raised, she 3-bet and I folded. The river was a low blank. BB showed ATo for top two pair and won both pots. All-in lost with AJo for a pair of aces.

More than happy to see more thoughts on this one.

Thanks for the feedback.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I decide that in this is a good spot for a "smoothcall the flop and raise the turn" play (something I'm using less and less often),

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like a good spot. He will bet the turn like you said and your hand is strong. Why are you using this play less and less?

I think you should still raise on the turn. It would be really hard for even an overaggressive player to three bet you here without at least a good ace. When you raise the turn, he's got to make you for the ace, and he still has to beat the all in guy for most of the pot even if you fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

1. I use it less and less because I find that people are willing to go 3, 4, 5, 6+ bets on the flop before they put you on TP/TK or an overpair. That night at Commerce on 3 separate occassions I went 7 bets on the flop with TP/TK or top two pair and I was good on all 3 hands at the time.

2. Your thoughts about the turn raise mirror mine. I think that my raise looks awful scary to any one pair hand, especially when the bulk of the pot is protected by an all-in player. That's why I raised, because I felt I could safely fold to a 3-bet. And while that read was correct this time, I am still not sure that raising is superior to callling down or even folding.

[elysium]

hi clark
you played it fine. good lay-down; cost the same.

[Clarkmeister]

Good analysis.

I am certainly betting for value on the river if I am called on the turn (especially since all-in could easily have an ace), so its not a free showdown raise.

What I think I need for the raise to be correct is for BB to muck a 5 out hand, something that I suspect won't happen very often, but might happen more often than usual in this spot because of the all in player. There is some small advantage to getting a 2 out hand to fold if that pocket pair won't put in any money on the river unless it improves.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
I was good on all 3 hands at the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, were your opponents on draws? Maybe they were thinking they were giving up a ton of EV by overplaying there draws. I dunno.

[ QUOTE ]
I am still not sure that raising is superior to callling down or even folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if it's superior in this one instance or not. But I am thinking in the long run it's probably better in a meta-game sort of way. Opponents may have to call you down when you raise the turn with a set or other very strong hand, because of the way you sometimes play medium strength hands.