Short Handed HOH II Example Applied to SnG's

[Monty Burns]

Just read an example in HOH II about controlling the odds that you offer your opponent at short handed tables(293-294). His point was interesting but I feel like the example was odd.

The game is three handed. Below I give the stack sizes provided in the example, each player’s percentage of the chips at the table and the corresponding number of chips if the game had been a PP 10+1 (the numbers are rounded so please don’t grill my math unless the mistake is significant):

Player 1 - $68,900, 38.3%, t3,061
Player 2 - $57,800, 32.1%, t2,560
Player 3 - $53,200, 29.6%, t2,364

The blinds are:
Big: $6,000, 3.33%, t266.67
Small: $3,000, 1.66%, t133 (granted that these exact blinds don’t occur at the 11s but I don’t think it ruins the example - there are also antes in the actual example which are ignored here).

Button folds. Now, you are the SB with TT. After walking through the mathematical implications of various holdings by the BB, Harrington advises you to raise 3xBB (the idea being that you offer the BB bad odds to call with one over card). The 3xBB raise, however, is better than 1/3 your stack.

Does anybody make this raise in a SnG? This is a clear push, right?

I understand that there a important differences between MTT and SnGs, but the parameters of this example track standard SNG conditions pretty closely (high blinds relative to stack sizes) so I was surprised by the advice.

Any thoughts?

[11t]

This is push/fold in a MTT or a SNG imo and just because Dan Harrington is famous doesn't mean he is right.

This is more true for a player who is playing by the push/fold mantra since a raise of any other amount is going to put off alarm bells in your opponent's head.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
This is push/fold in a MTT or a SNG imo and just because Dan Harrington is famous doesn't mean he is right.

This is more true for a player who is playing by the push/fold mantra since a raise of any other amount is going to put off alarm bells in your opponent's head.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty push/fold myself, but I'm willing to admit that its quite possible I give up some EV in the process.

There is something to be said for inviting worse hands to call and grabbing those 2-3BBs. I do however think these sorts of plays are probably better in a live toureny where you might be able to pick up on whether your opponent connects on the flop giving you a little more information you can't get online about how to play the hand postflop.

[45suited]

When I read that example, I couldn't see myself doing anything but pushing there.

Then again, Harrington MAY be slightly better than me post-flop. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Regardless of what he says, that's a push for me.

[Bill Poker]

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Then again, Harrington MAY be slightly better than me post-flop. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


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[DesertCat]

Inviting calls was one of the best things I got from HOH. The idea that you shouldn't try to over-raise with good hands so you can extract more, is a powerful concept.

To defend Harrington, let's think of what your opponents might have. If they have AA-JJ, or AK-AJ, letting them see a flop changes little in the equation, since if you pushed pre-flop, they would likely call your push.

But if you push, they fold AT-A2, Kx, Qx, connectors. With the exception of KQ and QJ, you dominate all of those hands. I'm guessing that if you push all non-ace flops, it would be a big +EV. I'm going to try to do some math and see if I can calculate the ChipEV correctly for this play.

[niin]

[ QUOTE ]
Inviting calls

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This is the key point of examples like this. Even if raising is 1/3rd your stack, 2/3rds your stack is still significant at this level. By pushing, you will only get called by hands that beat you or you are a coinflip to. By raising, you will get a wider range of hands to call you, so you get more value out of a big hand when short-handed.

[DesertCat]

Ok, I don't have time to do this correctly, but here's my rough guess. If he calls with one over card, he has three outs three times, or about a 20% chance of making a higher pair or two pair. If he has med or small pair, he's got an even lesser chance of hitting his set.

Using the 20% number, you win an extra 3BB 80% of the time, and lose your stack (10BB) almost 20% of the time. The ChipEV of this move in this rough example is positive by .4BB.

But this ignores TEV. The example doesn't provide payout information, but assuming the payout is standard top heavy, I'm guessing the extra ChipEV isn't worth it, i.e. it's better to take the blinds and improve your hold on the first two places, then gamble for an extra 3BB while increasing your chances of finishing third on this hand.