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#11
08-09-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well he did have 22, and I knew it. But for some reason, (i think iv been playing too much omaha) I thought my odds of improving were 40% so I called anyways and spiked the A on the turn like im suposed to. But tyhe point is, for a solid player to do this, he almost has to have exactly 22 here. Im surprised noone else agrees. [/ QUOTE ] because this is not true. [/ QUOTE ] Well the best I could hope for is A3. He is a good player, but wouldnt risk his chips like this in an unriased pot without a monster. What could he have? 
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#12
08-09-2005, 02:42 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
What could he have? [/ QUOTE ] You said he was solid. That doesn't mean he's a nit who will only have the nuts or 2nd nuts when he puts money into a pot. BTW I'm assuming you checkraised here, as he acted before you, and then he 3bet AI. Yes, very very strong. But what are some possible hands a guy could be playing very fast on this board that he just overlimps w/ position? 22 beats you. A3s ties you. Fair enough. K3s? 34s? If he played 34s he may play 32s, which beats you, but both seem unlikely. 44+? Why cant he be overplaying an overpair? 45? 45 w/ diamonds? Raw diamonds? (XX [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) or Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You need ~42% equity to make the call breakeven, and I think even if you weight out donk-aptitude about overplaying an OP and weight out move-making over aggro with pushing a marginal draw - it's still a clear call. Why? Worst case scenario he has 22, you have almost ~25% equity. If he has K3/34/etc. you have 80/20 advantage. If it's a split pot it's 50/50, which means more likely he is to have that you shoudl call, as winning 50% shows a fine profit. [ QUOTE ] He is a good player, but wouldnt risk his chips like this in an unriased pot without a monster. [/ QUOTE ] By the time he pushes all in, there is ~100 in the pot. He's overbetting by ~3x pot. You beat some of those "monsters". Oh well. I call this in a flash. Then again I never fold.
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#13
08-09-2005, 03:00 PM
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Re: Results
I think I know where some of the confusion is coming from. Its porbably my mault for the way I described my hand. UTG bet, I raised, then this guy goes allin in the cutoff, like he doesnt even care about UTG. UTG folds, so he might have had a 3 or a flush draw, but this lowers the chance of CO having either of these hands. But I did call becuase of the math you stated above but I really think I made a mistake
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#16
08-09-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Not true.. He played 2-2 VERY foolishly here IMO. He was fortunate that you had a 3 to call him down. You don't want to drive out the flush draw with a flopped boat. I'm very surprised he had 2-2. [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly how I would play 22, especially if you suspect UTG or the raiser to have a 3 most of the time as well as a coordinated board. You're not going to get any money out of anyone w/out a 3 unless they catch something to beat you on the turn - very easy push here for 22.
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#17
08-09-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: Results
With only two players in the pot, I dunno if I would
say that pushing 22 all in on flop would be great play. For one thing, anyone with a 3 may call, but trip 3s against a flopped twos full boat is a pretty big dog. If your opponent is half decent he ought to know this and likely won't call, especially on an unraised flop. With three players in the pot, yeah maybe pushing might be okay. Caller with a 3 might get the right odds if there already is a first caller. But that's kind of iffy because you don't get too many instances where you have two callers to an all in bet on the flop. But hey this is Internet poker. I've seen people do worse with their all in bets...
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#18
08-09-2005, 04:28 PM
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Re: Results
What's a better play than pushing here w/ 22? If you call, they know you have at least a 3 and will act accordingly. A high 3 is not getting away from the hand. Push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (also, a non-push raise here is by far scarier than a push).
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#19
08-09-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Results
ahnuld why would a solid player push you out of the pot with the second nuts. what is he that scared of. the possiblity that you hit your off card which is highly unlikely. most nits with the 2nd nuts wouldn't push allin so quickly with the 2nd nuts, this guy did, and you got lucky but most of the time your ahead. you might have gotten lucky but he made a weird play.
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