NLHE 2+2er goes all-in against me - easy decision?

[Ulysses]

1-2-2. I think someone in the middle killed it, making it 10 to open. Stacks involved range from 500-1500.

I don't remember the pre-flop action exactly, but it ended up 5-way action for 40 each - 200 in the pot. Everyone might have called 10 first, then maybe the killer made it 40. Anyway, CO and I (on the button) called 40 pre-flop (maybe after calling 10 first). CO is a relatively tight, very aggressive 2+2er. CO pretty much has two bet sizes - pot or all-in.

OK. I call 40 on the button w/ 88. 200 or so in the pot.

Flop 5c 8c 9s

200 in the pot. Checked (including whoever made it 40) to CO. CO goes all-in for something like 600. I have something like 1200. In front of me are one very strong NL player w/ a big stack and one terrible player w/ a big stack (both about 1500). There's also a weak player w/ a short stack.

I think CO will make this move w/ the following: a set, overcards + flushdraw (ie: AcKc), 67 (but I don't think CO would call 40 pre-flop w/ 67), or an overpair.

I go over the top all-in.

Thoughts?

[crockpot]

i think this one is pretty clear-cut.

your hand is much too good to fold here. if the 2+2er is indeed solid, he's not playing 76 in this pot, so all you have to worry about is 99. even if he does have 76 somehow, you're 35% to win.

unless the other players have some kind of weird respect for your raises, they're going to call 1200 with pretty much the same hands they'll call 600 with. so i assume your raise is an attempt to give worse odds to hands like JT and club draws, which is definitely correct.

[Ulysses]

Everyone else folded.

Turn (5c 8c 9s) 6c - Yuck.
River (5c 8c 9s 6c) 5s - I can tell from my opponent's reaction that my hand is good and just flip over my 88.

Does anyone give any thought to just calling on the flop?

Here are the possibilities:

I'm ahead of nut flush draw - maybe I don't mind making it easier for another flush draw to come in as well?

I'm behind a flopped straight - I need to improve, so again, maybe I don't mind letting other draws (worse than mine) in.

I'm behind top set - I'm drawing very thin for first place, but maybe I can build a side pot?

I'm ahead of an overpair or bottom set - In these cases, maybe I don't want to let anyone else in for less than full price w/ a good draw.

I considered briefly then decided that anyone who was going to call was likely to call an all-in bet anyway, so I just pushed.

[FishyWhale]

If you just call, open-enders and flush draws would be getting 2.3-to-1 pot odds, or 3.3-to-1 implied odds with your additional 600, when needing 4.22-to-1 or 4.88-to-1 to see the turn. I think I´d go for the smooth-call, hope that someone makes an incorrect call (after all CO is very aggressive, so they might lower their standards?), and bet (or call) all-in on turn (that way you might also win a side pot in case CO should have the better hand come showdown): if you bet on turn your opponents would make barely correct to slightly incorrect calls, but if they get there and bet you all-in, you get 4.3-to-1 when needing 3.6-to-1.

[Paul2432]

One danger of just calling is that you give yourself the opportunity to misplay the hand on the turn or river.

Suppose on the actual hand you just call and one player calls behind you. There is now 2000 in the pot. Given the action that has occurred, however unlikely, you could quite conceivably be drawing dead (straight flush) or to one out (higher set). Even if you have the full ten outs to a full house or quads, your are only getting 4.33:1 on a 4.2:1 shot. Not much margin for error here.

I think your best bet when the pot is large like this is all-in, both to protect your hand, and prevent mistakes.

Granted, this is all JMO, as I am a relative novice playing mostly 100 buy-in NLHE on Party Poker.

Paul

[Ignatius]

Move in. With only one player after him who has not yet acted, CO could be trying to buy the pot here with a lot of hands: JT, any flush draw, 78 or maybe even lesser draws like gutshot+overcards (QT, QJ) in addition to the hands you mentioned.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Move in. With only one player after him who has not yet acted, CO could be trying to buy the pot here with a lot of hands: JT, any flush draw, 78 or maybe even lesser draws like gutshot+overcards (QT, QJ) in addition to the hands you mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. CO could definitely be trying to buy the pot w/ hands like 78 and others you mention.

[ACBob]

Ulysses,

Yeah, kind of a quandry but I agree with the move in. Frankly with that pot size and your hand, you are pot committed. So fire it all in and if the any of the others want to gamble then let there be no more chips to take if they hit.

Bob Lewis

[ArtVandelay]

I'm going to go against the consensus here and suggest a call. Pretend you get one caller behind (presumably with a draw) and the turn blanks off. Likely they will call for your final 600 getting 5-1. Otherwise suppose they make their draw and bet 600. You are now getting the 5-1 and have a call, unless you somehow decide that the all-in player has exactly 99. So no matter what happens the money will all go in anyway, so it's equivalent to them calling your all-in raise on the flop. Here's the thing... it's almost certain that no draw has odds to call your all-in raise, but I suspect they are much more likely to call behind if you smooth call, because it appears they are getting better odds. At this depth of money there really can't be any more play on the turn because one or the other of you should always have (or at least think they have) 5-1 odds or better, and even if your opponents realize this it is certainly not less likely that they'll call behind. Furthermore, they are certainly more likely to commit with a made hand when you just call, maybe putting you on a gutshot + flush draw say, which gives you odds to call the all-in bet. Just my thoughts.