How bad is this flop raise?

[thesharpie]

5 handed prima 1/2

CO posted a blind

I open in MP with QTo, unknown CO calls, LAGgy BB calls

6SB Flop comes ATJr

BB bets, I raise, CO coldcalls, BB 3 bets, both call

7.5BB Turn pairs J

BB bets, both call

9.5BB River blank

BB bets, I call


Read on BB. He open raised in MP when he first sat down after posting a blind with J3s, then led 3 bet into me heads up on a paired board with a flush draw. He also raised a stop and go every street with queen high. Let's just say he's capable of betting the flop with a gutshot... I think I should fold the river, and I'm not sure about the flop raise. There aren't really overcards that can hurt me, and I'm probably not folding CO if he has a king, and BB is very likely to 3 bet me.

I fold the flop, only getting 7:1 and figuring I need to draw a K (43:4 or ~10:1) to be sure I take it down.

You can find stronger spots than this to take the BBs stack.

[Henke]

Ok, first of all, you're getting 7:1 on the flop, with 6 probable outs, so you have odds to at least call. So the question boils down to raise or call...

What reasons do we have for raising here? Driving CO out might be one reason. But the pot is not that big, so we would have to gain about 3.5 outs to make raising to drive CO out correct (if we would just go by this reason). So even if he folds a K we're not getting enough equity boost... Also the chances of him folding a king is probably not that big.

Another reason to raise might be to try for the free card. But since BB has shown earlier that he'll stopn'go with any hand, well, that free card is not very likely neither.

Raising to win it right here? Nah. To make them fold a better hand? Nah.

Raising for value? Now, this is where it IMO gets interesting. Assuming BB is loose, and is almost equaly likely to play an Ax hand as a Tx hand (we'll define x as a card < T), we will have 3*x*4*2 hands with an ace or jack, and 3*x*4+4*x*4 hands with a gutshot draw. That means that the odds of him having a gutshot vs a pair that beats ours is (4*3+4*4)/(3*4*2):1 or 1.17 to 1 against him having a pair that beats ours. If we add to this the fact that when he has a gutshot, he has 4 (or 3) outs to beat us, whereas when he has the pair, we will have 6 outs to beat him. This probably makes us into a bigger than 1.17 to 1 favourite.

But what about CO? Well, he posted preflop, and then called our raise. Don't know about prima, but at party 1-2 SH that doesn't mean anything. And since he could have any two, we probably have him beat, and BB is the one to worry about.

So my conclusion is that the flop raise is correct because it will most of the time be for value. When he three bets though, we're probably in trouble, so we would have to narrow the hand ranges a bit. I would guess that the worst hand he can have is something like Q9 or 98. So calling down is probably fine.

[Vote4Pedro]

You need 10:1 for a gutty alone, you have a pur along with your straight draw(~6 outs), this is a ridiculously easy call on the flop

I forgot you could also draw 2 Ts to win. A call on the flop is fine.

[SCfuji]

i have been playing a lot more on betholdem (prima skin right?). these guys are insanely aggressive. if you see their location as "linkoping" or "sweden" these guys go nuts with anything. i put a note sticky on the sane ones, the rest i treat as maniacs.