Do you call on this river?

[A_K]

Villan is a TAG; Haven't seen anything but solid play over roughly fifty hands. (Stats are 19/7.4/2.4). Given the flop action, I was pretty sure he had AQ or possibly KQ (KQ unlikely since he raised from UTG+1 and since I had two of the Ks), but I kept hearing a little voice saying "don't fold for one bet in a large pot." Fold on the river? Bet and fold to a raise?

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero . . .

[aK13]

I like bet/fold a lot better than check/anything.

[closer2313]

By checking the river, you might have induced a bluff from a good player recognizing the scarecard.

Yes?

[NateDog]

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/fold a lot better than check/anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? If he has a hand we beat, how often does he call? If he raises, are we so sure that he beats us 9 out of 10 times?

[Buckmulligan]

I think I Just call the flop raise and checkraise the turn, calling down if 3 bet. No way I fold this

[A_K]

[ QUOTE ]
By checking the river, you might have induced a bluff from a good player recognizing the scarecard.

Yes?

[/ QUOTE ]
I like the check call line here because we might get a bluff from a hand that would otherwise fold, while avoiding a raise from AQ. But given the action I have a really hard time putting this guy on anything other than AQ. Would a TAG raise UTG with KQ? What else could he be raising with on the flop and calling on the turn?

[baronzeus]

Bet/fold. KQ calls and AQ raises, and there are more KQ than AQ.

It's close but he will check behind with KQ here 90% of the time.

[CashFlo]

is JJ or TT unlikely here?

[crownjules]

I don't think it's very clearcut here, depending on villian's view of you. His raises could very well be in line with JJ/TT if he figures you're a TAG as well, as you could be betting AK.

Betting the river, he will probably fold KQ/JJ/TT. He may or may not re-raise you with AQ. I'm not sure what the chances of him bluff betting the scare card are if you check to him, but I don't think you lose many bets here in the long run going for the check/call line.

[ltb]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/fold. KQ calls and AQ raises, and there are more KQ than AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kind of confused here - we're only seeing one dead A, but 2 of the Ks are in Hero's hand - shouldn't there be more AQ than KQ?