Down to final 3, tactical question.

[Flopzilla]

Monthly 20k NL extravaganza, local B&M, 85 entries, down to the final 3.
Blinds are 3000-6000, ante 800. BB has most all of the chips; there are two small blinds due to the last player busting out. Hero has 12k after posting on the button; the other small blind has 6k left after posting.

Hero is first to act, looks down and sees KsQs. If Hero checks or bets, 90% probability sb will fold; BB is in autopush mode.

If Hero folds, 90% chance sb will fold all hands until blinds eat him.

First pays 7k, 2nd pays 3.5k, 3rd pays 2.5K.

What is Hero’s best move, and why?

[illegit]

Looks like if hero doesn't play this pot he or the big stack will be playing with a random hand vs. random hand against the short stack in one of the next 2 pots. If short stack happens to win the theoretically upcoming 50-50 situation then Hero will be in imminent danger. KQs is pretty huge 3-handed obviously. I like pushing. Folding leads to an extremely random prayer on the fall of the cards in the next 2-3 deals. Tough situation.

[betgo]

I push. KQs is what they call a monster 3-handed, even more so with the huge blinds. I don't see how you can assume SB will let himself be blinded out. He got this far in I guess a $300 tournament. I wouldn't assume terible play.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can assume SB will let himself be blinded out.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can anything else even be possible when SB will only have one BB left after this deal? He has no choice but to be blinded out or double up. He'll of course fold if button pushes knowing the BB will likely call with any 2 cards.

[locutus2002]

hero pushes.

kqs is about 2:1 against random hand. If hero wins he can outlast SB and probably gets 2nd. So 2:1 to get second. 2/3 equity in 2nd place is going to beat any other scenario.

If hero has 1 more chip than sb then he can fold, fold on his BB and call on his SB when the other player will be all in. he will again have 2:1 to win 2nd place.

If hero has exactly the same chips and he folds, folds on his BB and calls on his sb, he will be 1/3 to split 2nd, 1/3 to to take 2nd and 1/3 to lose 2nd.

If you wanted you could make a deal. I'd say "I have a hand and propose to take $600 of the $1000 difference, and that I'm indifferent between pushing and the deal."

I'd just push it.