JJ catastrophe? and 2 more

[mojolang]

Typical weak tight 4/8 game.

Im in M/LP with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raise. 2 LP blinds call as well as the BB.

LP2 is a pretty bad dealer but probably better than most players and BB is an absolutely abysmal unthinking player.

Flop:

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet LP 1 folds LP 2 thinks for a while and calls.

At this point I figure I'm in the lead but what did the LP player have to think about? I thought he might try to put in a raise if I bet again on 4th st.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Okay, this is a farily innocuous card, we check to the LP player who bets and we both call, what would he bet here? A ten obviously but if he had a four I think there is a good chance he would check.

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB leads out. I figure being that its the only draw out there and either the LP or I would definately call he had to have it, or maybe a ten. I fold, LP calls.

Dealer shows 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB shows K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I'd be very interested to hear if you guys think this was a catastrophic weak-tight fold. The BB had to know he wasn't going to pick up the pot here as LP was almost a calling station and wouldnt throw anything away there.

If I may quote sklansky " An example occurs when bettor is sure he will be called is when he is up against a live one (the LP player) who is not capable of throwing his hand away. If you find yourself in a multi-way pot with this live one as well as another player, you should throw a mediocre hand away if a player still bets while the live one is still in the pot. since the bettor expects to get called you can elimate the possibility that he is bluffing and therefore dont have to keep him honest"

--sklansky on poker p. 60

Hand #2
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in EP I raise 1st in. 2 players and BB call.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check planning to check raise, a player bets last player raises, I think for a bit and 3 bet. 1st player folds last player calls.

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet he calls

River: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check he checks it back. " I missed" he says as he shows the Ah

Hand #3 K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in BB

3 players limp, I check.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, LP bets I check-raise 1st player folds 2nd player cold calls, bettor calls.

Turn: Ts

I bet, call, call

River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, call from last player who shows

K4

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Typical weak tight 4/8 game.

Im in M/LP with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raise. 2 LP blinds call as well as the BB.

LP2 is a pretty bad dealer but probably better than most players and BB is an absolutely abysmal unthinking player.

Flop:

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet LP 1 folds LP 2 thinks for a while and calls.

At this point I figure I'm in the lead but what did the LP player have to think about? I thought he might try to put in a raise if I bet again on 4th st.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Okay, this is a farily innocuous card, we check to the LP player who bets and we both call, what would he bet here? A ten obviously but if he had a four I think there is a good chance he would check.

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB leads out. I figure being that its the only draw out there and either the LP or I would definately call he had to have it, or maybe a ten. I fold, LP calls.

Dealer shows 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB shows K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I'd be very interested to hear if you guys think this was a catastrophic weak-tight fold. The BB had to know he wasn't going to pick up the pot here as LP was almost a calling station and wouldnt throw anything away there.


[/ QUOTE ]

As I read that I'd put him on a middle pair lower than 10 and higher than 4. A massive pair would have probably meant a reraise pre flop and he might be inclined to limp with his pair. When you bet on the flop he considers carefully before deciding you don't have a ten as it doesn't really figure in many raising hands so he probably puts you on AK or an overpair. When you don't bet the turn I think he decides you have AK and tried using your pre flop strength to take the pot. Now his 6's look pretty good, especially as the BB probably has a 4 to call the bet. I would have definitely called the BB's bet. Maybe more often than not you'd be beaten but your hand still looks ok to me.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be very interested to hear if you guys think this was a catastrophic weak-tight fold. The BB had to know he wasn't going to pick up the pot here as LP was almost a calling station and wouldnt throw anything away there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, it is. The Big Blind may have known that the calling station would call but he perhaps knew that you are capable of folding winning hands. He also seems to have decided to call one bet on the river so by betting himself he gives himself a bigger chance to win the pot.

If the Big Blind had been really smart, he would have check-raised the turn when you gave him the opportunity to blow you out of the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
If you find yourself in a multi-way pot with this live one as well as another player, you should throw a mediocre hand away if a player still bets while the live one is still in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

An overpair is not a mediocre hand.

[Jim Easton]

[ QUOTE ]
The BB had to know he wasn't going to pick up the pot here as LP was almost a calling station and wouldnt throw anything away there.


[/ QUOTE ]

This requires at least some thinking. However -

[ QUOTE ]
BB is an absolutely abysmal unthinking player.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you put him on a thought?

[mojolang]

Here is what I thought he was thinking

"I'd better bet my flush draw for value becaus if I don't it could get checked around"

NOT

"I'd better bet my pocket fours to knocl out this kid who will certainly fold the best hand here"

NOT

"I'd better try and bluff through two players with my fours both of whom ave shown strength at various time in the hand"

I've talked to some people who said I should have paid it off as its unlikely that it would be raised behind me with the third heart coming. If I was last to act I would have certainly overcalled here. It was the fact that I was in between someone who was leading out and someone who, given the action could have trip tens. If I could do it again, I'd probably call but I had sat down at the table not long before the hand and didn't quite know just how bad this guy was and exactly what he was capable of. Basically, I gave these players WAYYY too much credit for thinking well which confused me and led me to make a mistake.

Joe

[Bob T.]

JJ hand. I would have bet the turn, and then reassessed if I got raised.

On the river, your hand is better than a mediocre hand, you obviously should have called.

I think that I probably would bet the river on hand two, you will likely be called by anyone with top pair.

[anatta]

You have to bet the turn. If you are raised, call down against tricky or aggressive players, but consider folding against your typical 4-8 player. But bet the turn, there are flush draws and lower pairs which could have called your flop bet. Bad players call with as little as an ace overcard here.

On the river, the pot is big enough and you are certainly ahead of the LP. As Dynasty says, save your tough laydowns for early in the hand. But dude, really , bet the turn!!

[lunchmeat]

Hand 1: As the others have said, bet the turn. You can't give a free card to a drawing hand.

Hand 2: This hand is pretty tricky and, frankly, I'm not sure of the best way to play it. One thing I would definitely do differently though is not bet the river. Here's why.

When your opponent raised on the flop he was either 1) raising with a low flush hoping to drive out higher hearts 2) had an overpair and wanted to drive out drawing hands 3)had a 9 for top pair and wanted to drive out drawing hands 4)was trying to win the pot right there with a draw to the ace of hearts.

In case 1 by betting you lose a big bet to his flush if he calls, and you may also get raised if he puts you on a big pair (not unlikely with your pre-flop raise) and decides to slowplay his flush. So in this situation you lose at least 1 bet.

In case 2 if he has an overpair to the flop you lose on river if he has AA JJ or TT, you'll also probably get raised by JJ or even TT. The only overpair you can beat is QQ. So you lose more money here by betting 5th street.

If your opponent raised the flop with a 9 you're also screwed with a bet. T9s, J9s, 98s, or 99 won't fold to your bet, and you can completely rule out other hands with a nine cold calling a pre-flop raise. Again, the set or the straight might raise your bet.

As it happened your opponent had the nut flush draw. But the river bet still doesn't do anything for you because he'll surely fold, as he did, with his failed draw when you bet.

That's a lot of info to go over in the short amount of time you have to make your decision, but it does point to a heuristic of river play that makes the decision to check here fairly easy. to wit: Don't bet the river when the hands you can beat will fold, but the hands that can call will certainly beat you.

Hope that helps.