QTs, lots of outs

peterchi · #1 08-05-2005, 08:04 PM

This is a hand that my friend played

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 raises, CO 3-bets, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, SB raises, Hero folds...

xpeterchix: wtf are you folding the turn for
**Hero**: any reasonable person has 99
**Hero**: i know
**Hero**: i don't know
**Hero**: i hate these people
xpeterchix: 12 outs
xpeterchix: maybe 10% of the time someone has 99
**Hero**: or 0
xpeterchix: so call it 10 outs
xpeterchix: and that's being waaaayyyy conservative
**Hero**: yeah
xpeterchix: 14:2 or 7:1 on your call
xpeterchix: i'm posting this hand for you
xpeterchix: reads?
**Hero**: idiots
**Hero**: all idiots

just wanted to make sure i was on track. your thoughts? anyone bet the turn?

pre-flop limp ok?

i didn't really think about the numbers when i wrote them so critique that too...

ImCrazy · #2 08-05-2005, 08:30 PM

I think he was correct to bail. He was at least looking at trips and an overpair. I think even if the spade came he given the betting, q high just wasn't gonna cut it. And I think if these players were sane, there was a chance (10-20%) the boat was out there...

#3 08-05-2005, 09:16 PM

Ugly.. Fold pre flop. call the turn.
On the turn you are getting 13:2 to call for a 4:1 shot, even if it isn't good some of the time.
Your odds should make up for the times you make your flush and lose.
To say that the SB "must have 99" is silly. This is giving WAY too much credit to small stakes players.
CO probably has an overpair. a boat does not try to push players out on the flop. These players habitually slowplay.

Jake (The Snake) · #4 08-05-2005, 09:25 PM

Preflop is fine.

Defenetely defenetely call the turn.

You might be able to cap the flop for value. I'm not real sure how much equity you lose on a paired board and queen high flush (compared to nut flush which is 35%). You probably are still better than 25% though. I'm also not sure how this might affect implied odds. Anybody have thoughts?

Klepton · #5 08-05-2005, 09:34 PM

he should have raised the flop, to clean up maybe a Q or T out.

they he played it i'm not folding the turn

jjacky · #6 08-05-2005, 09:36 PM

pre flop: fine

flop: a raise and a cap are both considerable options. the raise would help you to clean your overcard outs (MP1 may very well hold AQ or maybe AT). if your flush draw is good, a cap would obviously be for value. against trip deuces it would still be ok.
i am not positive, but i think a raise and a cap would both have been correct.

turn: you have to call this! if your draws are life, you need only about 3:1 odds and you get 7:1. the chance of drawing life is far higher than 50%.

#7 08-05-2005, 09:37 PM

I don't like a flop cap because you overcard outs are almost certainly no good, and you have to discount your spade outs with the paired board. So you are getting good odds to call along, but gain nothing from raising. I would put flop equity just under 25%.
I hate the limp preflop. This is a hand you want to limp in LP with a number of other limpers, or open raise in LP to take control of the hand, and hopefully steal the blinds, or win with agression.

jjacky · #8 08-05-2005, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a cap because you overcard outs are certainly no good, and you have to discount your spade outs with the paired board. So you are getting good odds to call along, but gain nothing from raising.
I hate the limp preflop. This is a hand you want to limp in LP with a number of other limpers, or open raise in LP to take control of the hand, and hopefully steal the blinds, or win with agression.

[/ QUOTE ]

most very well respected poster like natethegread and ed miller recommend calling preflop in this situation (and so do i). this hand plays fine multiway and it has good straight and flush possibilities in shorthanded raised pots.

ArturiusX · #9 08-05-2005, 10:31 PM

I don't think its the worst fold ever, but I probably wouldn't make it, and you might be slightly incorrect if you look into the exact numbers on possible hands.

No way I would fold Axs however.

benwood · #10 08-05-2005, 10:49 PM

If hero has been in the game long enough to seeraises & re-raises on most streets frequently, then Q-T is a good hand to fold before the flop in this early position. Otherwise, yoi never know when you should have gotten out of the hand.