Help me with a theory (which may not go anywhere)

[Rotterdaum]

Hiya

Down to business. I'm curiuos about what the % breakdown of the strength of your hand is at flop (how often do you get 2 pair, 3 of a kind etc.) and how it changes on the turn.

If the difference between the chance to catch the nuts at flop and at turn is significant, then we can kill 2 birds with one stone.

Playing looser post flop by CONSCIOUSLY seeing more TURNS where it seems to be against the odds you'll 1) create a loose image and 2) catch more nuts. Then when you have nuts, you'll be able to go all in and get callers MORE often, via the looser image.

Thoughts?

[Xhad]

This sounds like you're referring to NL. How can you guarantee seeing the turn in NL without making some horrendous calls?

[Rotterdaum]

Yes, I'm talking about NL, and they don't have to be horrendous, just bad, once in a while, for the greater good. Just a thought

[XXXNoahXXX]

This is a tricky situation, because theres a thin line between playing bad and trying to look like you're playing bad. Call flop bets trying to hit a gut shot on the turn can get expensive, and you will obviously get paid off when you hit, but the problems are many. 1) You're throwing in a lot of bets with slim odds of catching on the turn 2) Although you may be getting called more with your strong hands, you're also not going to be stealing any pots on the turn or river when people know you're constantly chasing. 3) When people are firing off big bets and you keep calling, even if you're flush/straight hits, they're more likely to put you on this chase and thereby not pay off as much. You obviously want to mix up your play by chasing sometimes, but in the end table image payoffs will not make up for the sloppy play needed to get there.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
Call flop bets trying to hit a gut shot on the turn can get expensive, and you will obviously get paid off when you hit, but the problems are many.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a NL cash game, if the implied odds are there, you can always rebuy if you miss several times in a row.

There are some who believe in the value of advertising. They would suggest playing so that you are actually much tighter than the loose image you cultivate.

You also aren't going to do as well as you think if your strategy involves only going all in when you have the nuts or when you make your draw.

[XXXNoahXXX]

True, also you can probably bluff people out of the pot more when a third flush card comes on the river because you have cultivated this image of a chaser. I didn't mean to imply that calling on a gut shot draw was always incorrect, but he seems to be implying calling it more often than the pot odds would probably dictate as a means of cultivating this loose image.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
True, also you can probably bluff people out of the pot more when a third flush card comes on the river because you have cultivated this image of a chaser. I didn't mean to imply that calling on a gut shot draw was always incorrect, but he seems to be implying calling it more often than the pot odds would probably dictate as a means of cultivating this loose image.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a max buy-in no limit cash game, some people like to chase draws or otherwise play rather loose in the hopes of either getting a big stack or putting a lot of money on the table in the hands of inferior players which they feel they can win back later, and then some. An expert player could probably get away with this.

Personally, I would be more inclined to semi-bluff check-raise all in with a hand like a gutshot straight draw plus an overcard than to call hoping to hit if I were going to try cultivating a loose image. I would also loosen up preflop.

If you're calling, that just makes you a calling station. You have to make loose raises with draws and other non-nut hands if you want to be paid off.

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I would be more inclined to semi-bluff check-raise all in with a hand like a gutshot straight draw plus an overcard than to call hoping to hit if I were going to try cultivating a loose image. I would also loosen up preflop.

If you're calling, that just makes you a calling station. You have to make loose raises with draws and other non-nut hands if you want to be paid off.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice. The key is that you have to play your big hands accordingly too to disguise such action. And if you don't want to gun it out on the flop with such hands as the above quote suggests, preferring to act on the turn, then you have to consistently bet/raise your good hands on that street as well, even TPTK which is frequently in danger with many flops. You have to recognize though that there are counterstrategies available to your opponents. I have one particular opponent who regularly plays with me in nl and who would often call my flop bets with such hands as bottom pair or a draw and try to steal if I showed weakness on the turn or a scare card came, although not one that actually hit him (I do this as well selectivley to players who are capable of folding). So what I started doing when a draw didn't hit on the turn, was to overbet the pot big, but not so big that I couldn't fold to a reraise if he was slowplaying me with a set. He finally got the message and just stopped messing with me like that since he realized he was investing calls on the flop that were not warranted by pot odds and found out that I wouldn't pay him off if he hit a draw. This effectively took away turn steals and turn calls to setup river steals. If he had actually had the balls to set me in occasionally on the turn with marginal hands or draws when my stack was big enough for me to fold, then I probably would have just resorted to pushing the turn myself although I don't like playing that way.