WD-40 please.. (party 5/10) - Page 3

donger · #21 08-01-2005, 09:13 PM

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Go read the qq hand from the ssh hand problems and this basically documents my argument. If the guy is passive then it will take 1bb to get to the river in a big pot. There are lot more marginal situations than this in which you can save 1 bet.

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Why do you want to get to the river when you're beat and drawing to ~2 outs?

Graham Handler · #22 08-01-2005, 09:16 PM

Have u failed to read my last 5 replys in which I tell you why its good to raise the flop or are u just ignoring them. Considering you have jj it is unlikley that there is another straight draw out your set outs are most likely good. If the turn comes 8h are u really going to be happy about folding on the flop.

sharp63 · #23 08-01-2005, 09:17 PM

16/11 in 6-max? Are you serious? This guy is a weak ninny.

Personally, I'd raise and see how they reacy. You could end up with a free card or if he shows resistance by re-raising, you can dump your hand only losing 1 extra BB.

DMBFan23 · #24 08-01-2005, 09:19 PM

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Personally, I'd raise and see how they reacy. You could end up with a free card or if he shows resistance by re-raising, you can dump your hand only losing 1 extra BB.

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again with the "could" and the "if". why not try and put him on hands and see exactly how often you'll get the freebie, or whether or not you have to waste 1BB at all? it's not hard, he's tight. it's not like trying to put Vp$IP 40 players on a hand where you have to rack your brain over whether he plays A2o or any two suited.

Entity · #25 08-01-2005, 09:21 PM

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Have u failed to read my last 5 replys in which I tell you why its good to raise the flop or are u just ignoring them. Considering you have jj it is unlikley that there is another straight draw out your set outs are most likely good. If the turn comes 8h are u really going to be happy about folding on the flop.

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I read all of your replies. I still haven't seen an accurate range of hands for this particular player's actions given yet that would justify a raise. So far I've seen you say "he might have KT" which, in my assessment and experience, is very unlikely. How about some more hands?

You're dealing with a player who isn't overly passive (he falls on the side of aggression when it comes to how he plays his hands vs. the average player), who has a fairly narrow hand range to begin with, and you're telling me that raising the flop here is the best play?

Rob

sharp63 · #26 08-01-2005, 09:26 PM

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again with the "could" and the "if". why not try and put him on hands and see exactly how often you'll get the freebie, or whether or not you have to waste 1BB at all? it's not hard, he's tight. it's not like trying to put Vp$IP 40 players on a hand where you have to rack your brain over whether he plays A2o or any two suited.

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Unless I'm sitting at the table and see him play a bunch of hands then I'm not able to give a definite answer. Based on his info, I said that I'd reraise. How he reacts to that reraise will give you all the info needed on his hand...

DMBFan23 · #27 08-01-2005, 09:27 PM

yeah, you can't do the detailed calculations sitting at the table, I'll agree. but doing it here, when you have the time to break it down and think about it, really helps you when you have to make the spur of the moment decisions.

Entity · #28 08-01-2005, 09:33 PM

Guys, we know the following things:

He doesn't play many hands.

He plays them less aggressively than you or I do but more aggressively than the average player. He's not passive but he's not aggressive enough to be raising a wide range of hands preflop or betting a wide range of hands on this flop. The likelihood of him having a hand like 88, 77, etc. here is incredibly small. The best you can hope for is him taking a stab with KK/QQ and intending to fold, but then we come to the final stat:

His WTSD. It's not incredibly high, but it's not low enough to suggest that he does a lot of folding early on. He makes it to showdown about as often as I do. Maybe a tad less but not much.

We don't have much to go by on this guy, but we certainly don't have enough to suggest that raising this flop is the correct play. When we're raising we're committing ourselves to 1BB at least when a free card play is only likely to work against a small subset of his hands (AJ and AQ, in particular). We're going to be bet into on the turn frequently, if not by him, than by the lovely CO. The "free card" play is generally overused and certainly should not be employed in this situation; if we're raising it's because we're running a bluff because we think:

1) We can push UTG off a hand.
2) We are ahead of CO.

That parlay is too difficult to meet, in this instance, and consequently I fold. The next potential action would be calling, and given that you're closing the action, I think it's better than raising; however, I like folding here best, as many of your runner-runner outs that y'all are counting need to be severely discounted at best.

Anyone doing the math needs to seriously consider that our free card play needs to work, by my guesstimate, about 80% of the time to be worthwhile, given that a call here is razor thin at best. The other lovely thing to remember is that with backdoor draws, we often get a free card when we wouldn't need one to begin with. The vast majority of the time we aren't going to hit anything that helps us with our draw and we'll be folding correctly on the turn. It's not like a gutshot or a flush draw where our odds are changing but the situation is not -- with backdoor draws, we have to hit a card on the turn, and not hitting that card means we just paid 1BB for a draw when paying .5BB would have been much more feasible.

Rob

donger · #29 08-01-2005, 09:35 PM

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again with the "could" and the "if". why not try and put him on hands and see exactly how often you'll get the freebie, or whether or not you have to waste 1BB at all? it's not hard, he's tight. it's not like trying to put Vp$IP 40 players on a hand where you have to rack your brain over whether he plays A2o or any two suited.

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Unless I'm sitting at the table and see him play a bunch of hands then I'm not able to give a definite answer. Based on his info, I said that I'd reraise. How he reacts to that reraise will give you all the info needed on his hand...

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You might even scare him into calling down with the best hand..

sharp63 · #30 08-01-2005, 09:41 PM

Calling is a bad move...you're basically guaranteed to be bet against on the turn. If you raise instead of fold, the most it's going to cost you is an extra .5 BB and could buy you a free river.

Like I said, I would raise, but I could certainly justify folding as well. I don't see any reason why you would call though...Seems very weak.