WD-40 please.. (party 5/10) - Page 2

weevil · #11 08-01-2005, 08:12 PM

I ran poker stove checking your flop equity against an 11% range of hands from UTG and 45% from CO (assuming your average fishy 5/10 player). With those board cards, you have the least equity at around 23%, CO at 28%, and UTG at 47%. UTG is tight, but not freakishly so, 11% of hands is still fairly broad. But most players with these stats are tighter early on, so we should probably put him raising only group 1 and some 2 hands. Your equity then falls to around 10% with UTG at 65%. You have to get really lucky for him to sometimes have KQs, which is probably the only reasonable hand he has that you beat. But even then your equity is not ahead of the CO. This is about as clear a flop fold as you can find after a PF 3bet.

Entity · #12 08-01-2005, 08:14 PM

Seems like a really easy fold to me.

Graham Handler · #13 08-01-2005, 08:22 PM

This hand is straight out of ssh and im not going to argue the fold if you are 100% convinced he would only play a big ace or a set this way but if you arent then its a bad fold.

Entity · #14 08-01-2005, 08:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is straight out of ssh and im not going to argue the fold if you are 100% convinced he would only play a big ace or a set this way but if you arent then its a bad fold.

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Even if he can play other hands that way, what hand(s) are you looking for to put in the range that will make calling down/raising correct when CO is merrily calling along?

Rob

Graham Handler · #15 08-01-2005, 08:38 PM

I can think of a bunch of combination that co and utg could have that he is beating. UTG could have a k10, or an under pair. CO could have a flush or straight draw or a pair of threes. 5/10 isnt the mecca for genious poker players and a lot the times there plays dont make sense. Since im not sure that im beat and taking into consideration that I have outs Im going to continue in this large pot.

Entity · #16 08-01-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can think of a bunch of combination that co and utg could have that he is beating. UTG could have a k10, or an under pair. CO could have a flush or straight draw or a pair of threes. 5/10 isnt the mecca for genious poker players and a lot the times there plays dont make sense. Since im not sure that im beat and taking into consideration that I have outs Im going to continue in this large pot.

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Do you really think UTG is going to be betting KT here (especially given that he won't have KTo here -- pretty much ever) often enough for you to continue?

And the whole "I have outs" thing should be saved for when you have real outs, not 1 collective backdoor out and 2 probably good set outs.

Rob

weevil · #17 08-01-2005, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can think of a bunch of combination that co and utg could have that he is beating. UTG could have a k10, or an under pair. CO could have a flush or straight draw or a pair of threes. 5/10 isnt the mecca for genious poker players and a lot the times there plays dont make sense. Since im not sure that im beat and taking into consideration that I have outs Im going to continue in this large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be good on the flop here 1/10 times, but you have almost no likely good redraws, whereas the majority of hands that you could possibly beat do. Calling down boards like this given the action and multiway aspect is a great way to piss off your money. There are much much better ways to get your money in.

Graham Handler · #18 08-01-2005, 08:48 PM

Go read the qq hand from the ssh hand problems and this basically documents my argument. If the guy is passive then it will take 1bb to get to the river in a big pot. There are lot more marginal situations than this in which you can save 1 bet.

Entity · #19 08-01-2005, 08:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Go read the qq hand from the ssh hand problems and this basically documents my argument. If the guy is passive then it will take 1bb to get to the river in a big pot. There are lot more marginal situations than this in which you can save 1 bet.

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Your opponent isn't passive, and he likely has you beat. You have very few outs in a pot that is decent-sized but not huge, and if your caller is on something like a flush draw, you'll lose even more often than you would otherwise.

Rather than telling me to look at the QQ hand, why don't you tell me why against this opponent, calling or raising is good? Give me a hand range that is realistic considering he raised preflop from UTG (and has an 11% PFR) and led into a preflop 3-bettor through a person that coldcalled prelfop on an AT-high flop.

Rob

DMBFan23 · #20 08-01-2005, 09:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
XXX player COULD HAVE

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I hate this phrase, it gets used to justify loose calls and -EV bets all over the place it seems. put people on ranges and look at how your hand compares to his range and that range's likely actions on this round and future rounds, and the size of the pot. have we all really gotten THAT lazy? I think we have, because there are too many hands to give each hand the correct full treatment. everyone should do some of them though.

but seriously, we aren't analyzing things thouroughly. it seems a lot of us type "Do x, this player might have y." sure, but what about the times he has z, and how often does he have both? and I'm not talking about someone like sthief or clark or got who have done all this [censored] 5000 times, I'm talking about the people who take the ABC line as gospel and have no idea why.