JJ overcard flop, please check my line

WSOP Bound · #1 07-30-2005, 11:26 PM

I was in this hand earlier and it seemed like a good place to use a turn raise for a cheap showdown (SSHE p.175). No meaningful reads as this is only the second orbit at the table. UTG seems like a typical player (for UB .25/.50 this seems to fall on the tighter side, i.e. sLPP to TPP).

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (5.5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, Hero ???

I'm thinking that my opponent likely has a pocket pair (lower than my jacks), middle pair, a flush draw, or a weak ace. Flush draw and weak ace stick out in my mind as very likely. I don't want to give the flush draw a free card to draw out and it is very possible that there is value in a bet here so a bet seems appropriatte. The plan is to bet the turn and check through on the river UI. The reason that I see going for the cheap showdown is that the weak ace will likely call a river bet, but a busted flush draw won't.

I'm not sure about my line if a club comes on the river, or I get lead into on the river (or both). I'm thinking that I release this if I get C/Red on the turn or lead into on the river. Any thoughts would be appreciated

McGahee · #2 07-31-2005, 02:04 AM

Your analysis is pretty much dead on. Bet the turn, fold to a C/R, check the river.

WSOP Bound · #3 07-31-2005, 08:49 AM

Thanks, I really appreciatte the feedback. What's the line if he leads the river?

thesharpie · #4 07-31-2005, 09:47 AM

A river lead after check calling the flop and turn is rare from loose passive opponents, that said I usually fold if it does happen.

xenthebrain · #5 07-31-2005, 09:57 AM

Bet here and take a free showdown (except if a jack falls of course).
If he bets himself anywhere from here on I'm inclined to fold.

Fadook · #6 07-31-2005, 10:11 AM

It's nice to see a good line for this fairly typical position. Also quite common though: what do you do if you're first to act? Betting the turn still seems right, but if you then check the river, your may well induce a bluff.

WSOP Bound · #7 07-31-2005, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to see a good line for this fairly typical position. Also quite common though: what do you do if you're first to act? Betting the turn still seems right, but if you then check the river, your may well induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this out of position would take away your ability to play for a free showdown as mentioned. If your first to act I'm still inclined to lead the turn for two reasons:

a) Opponent has shown no strength yet in the hand so we may well be best, making it a value bet
b) A possible holding the way UTG has played the hand is a flush draw. We don't want to give him a free card.

Inducing the bluff in this situation is not a bad thing. I tend to think that leading the river UI here without position would be as much of a mistake as betting the river with position. As it stands now we get called (or perhaps C/Red by hands that beat us and make worse hands than ours fold. Without position we have the same scenario, except that we are much more likely to get raised than C/Red the way that this hand has played. Bottom line is: I'm not giving a free card here, but aside from that am getting to this showdown as cheaply as possible.