#1
|
|||
|
|||
Another important hand from 11R
This is with 23 or so left. I think this might be the worst hand I played in the entire tournament, but I seriously didn't have a clue what to do with it. Just tell me how BAD IS THIS?
PokerStars Game #2228353593: Tournament #10400796, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (15000/30000) - 2005/07/31 - 03:21:18 (ET) Table '10400796 162' Seat #3 is the button Seat 1: geeah (318392 in chips) Seat 3: krex (843664 in chips) Seat 4: Accordion (204889 in chips) Seat 6: ZBTHorton1 (434087 in chips) Seat 7: bail3yz (314946 in chips) Seat 8: spankdeazz (1208779 in chips) Seat 9: Pao26 (396065 in chips) geeah: posts the ante 1500 krex: posts the ante 1500 Accordion: posts the ante 1500 ZBTHorton1: posts the ante 1500 bail3yz: posts the ante 1500 spankdeazz: posts the ante 1500 Pao26: posts the ante 1500 Accordion: posts small blind 15000 ZBTHorton1: posts big blind 30000 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to ZBTHorton1 [Ks 7s] bail3yz: folds spankdeazz: calls 30000 Pao26: calls 30000 geeah: folds krex: calls 30000 Accordion: folds ZBTHorton1: checks *** FLOP *** [Kd Qs 6s] ZBTHorton1: checks spankdeazz: bets 90000 Pao26: raises 274565 to 364565 and is all-in krex: folds ZBTHorton1: folds spankdeazz: folds Pao26 collected 325500 from pot Pao26: doesn't show hand *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 325500 | Rake 0 Board [Kd Qs 6s] Seat 1: geeah folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: krex (button) folded on the Flop Seat 4: Accordion (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 6: ZBTHorton1 (big blind) folded on the Flop Seat 7: bail3yz folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: spankdeazz folded on the Flop Seat 9: Pao26 collected (325500) |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
Second nut flush draw, 3 good 7's, 2 K's, and Top pair!!!
Call the all-in... Too many outs. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
You have a really good hand on a coordinated board. Lead out with a bet, and plan to go all the way with the hand. These are the situation that determine the winners of the tournament.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
NEVER am i getting off this hand... just a quick note on some hands u could be up against.
KJ u are 52% to win Ax of spades u are 61% to win 66 u are still 31% to win Qx u are around 82% to win KQ still 38% to win JTs 79% to win Just popped a couple examples into pokerstove. not sure what other hands he could have limped with but i think u are in good shape with a big pot and even some dead money i think u MUST go with this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
ZB,
Had you played with PAO very long at this point? His standard line was to do a lot of limping, and fire wa bet into any pot to try to take it down. You very likely were ahead, and even if you were not its reasonable to think you had 12 outs. ActionJeff said it best. lead out and be ready to call an allin here. This is a great example of what happens when you let someone else take conrol of a hand. =/ Nick |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
Yeah, lead the flop, then push/call anyone who raises. You probably had the best hand already, and had redraws to the likely best hand if not.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
[ QUOTE ]
Just tell me how BAD IS THIS? [/ QUOTE ] I'm actually a bit stunned at all the replies that this was a bad fold and that you should have pushed. What are the possible hands that your opponents could be holding? What is the possible worst case scenario for you? Here's a distinct possibility given the calls and raises: Spank has a weak suited Ace, something like As 4s Pao has pocket sixes. Running this through 2dimes with the board flop that you indicated, unsurprisingly reveals the following probability of win: ZB: appx 2% Spank: appx 24% Pao: appx 74.5% In other words, if this were the case, you would be almost drawing dead. It's even worse if Pao has something like KQo or KQs, although he probably would have raised preflop with the latter. Most likely the only way you have a higher chance to win is if Spank is playing suited undercards, like JsTs. Is your fold looking that bad under these circumstances? |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
yeah it's a good fold if you assume someone has a higher k and the nut flush draw? How the hell do you assume that?
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
Okay, here is my reasoning for the way I played it at the time. As I said before, I'm about 90% sure I botched this hand, but none the less.
About 20 minutes before this, I flopped top pair, 2nd nut flush draw on another player. I checked, he pushed, I called. Hit my flush and we all moved on. With the aggression that was going on at both points in the tournament, I don't mind the check on the flop, because I KNEW he would push. When the first players bets, I am ready to push over the top. But the second player(who I had no read on...whatsoever) makes me think I'm behind a bigger king. I really was getting odds to call this though. I know I botched this. :-\ |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another important hand from 11R
[ QUOTE ]
How the hell do you assume that? [/ QUOTE ] Well, think about it. Walk through the hand. 10.5K antes Spank EP limps for 30K Pao EP overcall limp for another 30K Right away I gotta be thinking, what hands to they have that are good enough to try to limp and see a cheap flop, but not good enough to raise with? Hmmmmm, Axs and middle pairs come to mind. Or perhaps a slowplay? Then the button overcall limps making the preflop pot about 130K. After the flop, Spank bets 90K, about 2/3 of the pot but only about 8% of his overall stack. He probably has a piece of the flop, but this smells an awful lot like a semi-bluff. Could he have something like KhJh or JsTs? The pot is now 220K. But then Pao goes right over the type all in. He obviously doesn't care that someone has top pair. He is either semi-bluff raising with the nut flush draw, or has top pair easily covered and is betting big to protect against a potential flush draw. As9s, KQo, and 66 are hands that come to mind. Pao could be stone bluffing, but how many players limp from EP without an Ace, bigger painted cards or a middle pair? The pot is now 585K. The flop obviously misses the button and he gets out of the way, which brings us to ZB in the blind and getting about 1.8:1 from the pot. ZB wasn't comfortable with betting out with top pair, weak kicker and 4-flush. But now it's supposed to be an obvious push all in call, even though he is probably outkicked by the original caller and possibly drawing dead or from way behind a set of sixes? What are the possible ranges or possibilities of hands that Spank and Pao could be holding, that could possibly come close to giving ZB better than 1.8:1 odds of taking down the pot head-up (or worse in a 3-way if Spank overcalls). If Spank were to overcall, then I'd have to believe that ZB's hand is very close to DOA. Maybe I'm way off, but I can't think of a single one. Good fold ZB, IMHO. |
|
|